Mantrap Lake
Clear Sky Chart
History

This sumarizes the distribution of each different forecast outcome for the Mantrap Lake clear sky chart from 2005-11-06 to 2024-01-14.

This page is a summary of past forecasts. Even though it's based only on forecasts, some people use these pages as clue to a site's climate. But climate data based on actual observation should be preferred (if you can find it!).

Cloud, Transparency and Seeing forecasts are summarized individually. But because good observing conditions require a combination of minimum cloud cover, transparency and seeing, the individual forecast summaries can be difficult to interpret. The observing conditions section counts the combinations of conditions needed for common types of astronomical observation.

Observing Conditions

The following tables count the occurrence of the combinations of forecast and darkness conditions needed for different observations. Conditions are rated by by what percentage of the hours the observation would likely be attempted are usable.

Observation Type	Minimum conditions for hour to be usable				Out of hours
	Clear of Clouds	Transparency	Seeing	Sky Brightness
Planetary:	50%	(no limit)	Average	(no limit)	Nighttime Hours
Deep Sky:	70%	Average	(no limit)	5.9	Nighttime Hours
CCD Imaging:	70%	Below Average	Poor	(no limit)	Nighttime Hours

Percentages are of nighttime hours per month, or per year, when a particular observing conditions was met. Deep Sky percentages never exceed 50% because the moon is up half the time. Deep sky percentages are much lower for charts at high latitudes because of fewer dark hours in the summer.

Overall

By Month

Individual Forecasts

The length of each colored bar in the "occurrence of each Forecast" column is proportional to the number of times the chart forecast that color. The percentages are of the total number of hours per month, or per year, with a particular forecast. The colors as the same as those used in clear sky charts.

Note: Transparency probabilities are only counted for those hours that have 30% or less cloud cover. Seeing probabilities are only counted for those hours that have 80% or less cloud cover. If that's too tricky, try Observing Conditions instead.

Overall

		Occurrence of each Forecast	Data Points
Cloud Cover	Day	13% 9% 4 7% 6% 4 5% 5% 5% 7% 35%	74719
	Night	12% 9% 4 8% 6% 3 5% 5% 5% 7% 35%	75041
Transparency	Day	48% 6% 13% 23% 9% 1	74413
	Night	47% 6% 13% 23% 10% 1	74881
Seeing	Day	16% 10% 32% 26% 13% 3	14935
	Night	15% 10% 33% 30% 11% 1	24985

By Month

Percentage Cloud Cover NE (2006-)
Color Meanings: Overcast 90% covered 80% covered 70% covered 60% covered 50% covered 40% covered 30% covered 20% covered 10% covered Clear
Month	Days in Month		Occurrence of each Forecast	Data Points
January	1st to 10th	Day	8% 13% 6% 10% 8% 5% 7% 5% 8% 9% 23%	1328
	11th to 20th	Day	9% 15% 6% 12% 10% 5% 6% 6% 6% 7% 19%	1290
	21st to end	Day	9% 13% 7% 14% 11% 6% 8% 6% 5% 7% 14%	1760
February	1st to 10th	Day	9% 11% 6% 10% 8% 4 7% 6% 5% 7% 27%	1620
	11th to 20th	Day	8% 12% 4 7% 8% 5% 7% 6% 6% 8% 28%	1574
	21st to end	Day	9% 11% 5% 9% 9% 5% 5% 5% 6% 8% 28%	1341
March	1st to 10th	Day	12% 11% 5% 11% 6% 4 5% 5% 5% 6% 29%	1942
	11th to 20th	Day	13% 10% 5% 8% 6% 3 5% 5% 6% 8% 31%	1980
	21st to end	Day	17% 10% 4 10% 7% 2 5% 5% 5% 6% 30%	2178
April	1st to 10th	Day	16% 10% 4 8% 7% 4 5% 5% 5% 6% 31%	2132
	11th to 20th	Day	17% 13% 4 8% 7% 3 4 4 5% 7% 30%	2276
	21st to end	Day	22% 10% 3 6% 5% 3 5% 4 5% 5% 32%	2340
May	1st to 10th	Day	19% 10% 3 6% 5% 3 5% 4 4 7% 34%	2422
	11th to 20th	Day	17% 7% 3 5% 6% 4 4 6% 5% 8% 37%	2479
	21st to end	Day	17% 6% 3 6% 5% 3 6% 5% 5% 8% 37%	2757
June	1st to 10th	Day	13% 5% 3 6% 5% 3 5% 6% 6% 9% 40%	2700
	11th to 20th	Day	15% 6% 3 5% 6% 4 5% 5% 6% 7% 38%	2700
	21st to end	Day	11% 5% 2 6% 6% 4 6% 5% 7% 9% 38%	2700
July	1st to 10th	Day	7% 4 2 5% 4 3 5% 5% 6% 10% 48%	2700
	11th to 20th	Day	10% 5% 2 5% 5% 4 5% 6% 6% 9% 44%	2700
	21st to end	Day	6% 4 3 4 5% 4 5% 6% 7% 9% 48%	2760
August	1st to 10th	Day	9% 4 2 5% 5% 3 6% 6% 6% 8% 45%	2328
	11th to 20th	Day	13% 5% 2 5% 6% 3 5% 5% 5% 8% 43%	2301
	21st to end	Day	11% 4 2 5% 5% 3 4 5% 6% 6% 49%	2560
September	1st to 10th	Day	13% 5% 2 5% 4 3 4 4 5% 9% 45%	2160
	11th to 20th	Day	14% 6% 2 6% 5% 4 5% 4 6% 6% 42%	2050
	21st to end	Day	16% 9% 3 5% 5% 3 4 4 5% 7% 40%	1949
October	1st to 10th	Day	18% 11% 3 5% 5% 3 4 4 4 6% 37%	1800
	11th to 20th	Day	18% 13% 5% 6% 4 3 3 4 4 5% 35%	1800
	21st to end	Day	18% 12% 6% 9% 5% 4 4 4 4 6% 29%	1913
November	1st to 10th	Day	12% 13% 6% 9% 6% 3 4 4 5% 6% 32%	1488
	11th to 20th	Day	11% 16% 7% 13% 7% 4 4 4 4 5% 25%	1520
	21st to end	Day	12% 11% 7% 8% 8% 4 6% 4 7% 7% 26%	1520
December	1st to 10th	Day	9% 14% 6% 13% 9% 4 6% 4 6% 7% 22%	1520
	11th to 20th	Day	8% 15% 7% 11% 9% 5% 7% 6% 5% 5% 23%	1689
	21st to end	Day	19% 14% 7% 11% 9% 3 4 4 4 5% 20%	2442
January	1st to 10th	Night	8% 8% 5% 10% 10% 5% 7% 7% 8% 8% 25%	2837
	11th to 20th	Night	10% 12% 7% 12% 9% 5% 6% 5% 6% 7% 21%	2744
	21st to end	Night	9% 13% 7% 11% 10% 4 6% 6% 7% 9% 19%	2594
February	1st to 10th	Night	6% 10% 6% 7% 7% 4 8% 6% 7% 9% 30%	2340
	11th to 20th	Night	5% 12% 4 8% 7% 3 7% 7% 6% 8% 33%	2273
	21st to end	Night	10% 11% 4 9% 8% 5% 6% 5% 6% 7% 30%	1924
March	1st to 10th	Night	10% 11% 5% 9% 7% 3 5% 4 4 8% 32%	2010
	11th to 20th	Night	11% 10% 3 7% 6% 4 5% 4 4 6% 39%	1979
	21st to end	Night	15% 11% 4 8% 6% 3 5% 4 4 7% 33%	2178
April	1st to 10th	Night	15% 10% 4 6% 6% 3 4 5% 5% 6% 37%	1828
	11th to 20th	Night	17% 11% 5% 6% 6% 3 4 3 4 5% 37%	1630
	21st to end	Night	18% 9% 3 6% 5% 3 4 5% 5% 7% 35%	1620
May	1st to 10th	Night	16% 9% 4 5% 5% 3 4 4 4 5% 41%	1536
	11th to 20th	Night	15% 7% 3 4 5% 3 6% 4 6% 7% 40%	1416
	21st to end	Night	12% 7% 3 7% 5% 3 5% 4 5% 9% 41%	1515
June	1st to 10th	Night	12% 4 2 4 4 3 5% 6% 7% 9% 45%	1260
	11th to 20th	Night	10% 5% 2 5% 5% 3 5% 6% 6% 7% 47%	1260
	21st to end	Night	9% 4 2 4 5% 2 6% 4 5% 10% 49%	1260
July	1st to 10th	Night	5% 2 2 3 3 2 5% 4 6% 8% 59%	1260
	11th to 20th	Night	6% 3 2 3 4 2 5% 4 5% 8% 58%	1260
	21st to end	Night	4 2 1 4 3 2 4 6% 6% 9% 57%	1552
August	1st to 10th	Night	6% 4 2 3 5% 3 4 4 6% 9% 54%	1611
	11th to 20th	Night	11% 5% 2 3 4 3 4 3 5% 8% 52%	1600
	21st to end	Night	10% 4 2 3 4 2 3 3 4 7% 57%	1795
September	1st to 10th	Night	10% 4 2 5% 5% 3 4 5% 6% 7% 51%	1800
	11th to 20th	Night	9% 6% 3 5% 5% 3 4 4 5% 8% 50%	1908
	21st to end	Night	14% 7% 2 5% 4 2 3 4 4 7% 47%	1993
October	1st to 10th	Night	15% 9% 3 6% 5% 3 4 4 5% 6% 39%	2160
	11th to 20th	Night	16% 9% 3 6% 6% 3 4 4 5% 6% 37%	2160
	21st to end	Night	17% 12% 5% 8% 6% 3 4 4 4 7% 30%	2441
November	1st to 10th	Night	11% 12% 5% 8% 6% 3 5% 4 5% 7% 33%	2589
	11th to 20th	Night	12% 12% 7% 12% 7% 3 4 4 5% 6% 26%	2660
	21st to end	Night	11% 9% 4 9% 8% 3 6% 5% 5% 7% 31%	2660
December	1st to 10th	Night	8% 12% 7% 11% 9% 5% 7% 6% 7% 7% 21%	2660
	11th to 20th	Night	10% 13% 6% 13% 9% 4 5% 6% 5% 5% 22%	3503
	21st to end	Night	20% 14% 8% 9% 8% 4 4 4 4 6% 19%	5225

Transparency (when cloud cover <= 30%)
Color Meanings: Too cloudy to forecast Poor Below Average Average Above average Transparent
Month	Days in Month		Occurrence of each Forecast	Data Points
January	1st to 10th	Day	55% 6% 12% 21% 6% 1	1329
	11th to 20th	Day	63% 6% 9% 15% 8%	1290
	21st to end	Day	68% 5% 8% 11% 7%	1760
February	1st to 10th	Day	55% 5% 10% 19% 11%	1620
	11th to 20th	Day	53% 5% 12% 19% 9% 2	1583
	21st to end	Day	54% 7% 11% 17% 12%	1341
March	1st to 10th	Day	55% 6% 13% 20% 6%	1944
	11th to 20th	Day	52% 5% 13% 21% 9% 1	1980
	21st to end	Day	56% 5% 11% 21% 7% 1	2178
April	1st to 10th	Day	54% 5% 10% 19% 11% 1	2132
	11th to 20th	Day	54% 6% 11% 18% 10% 1	2276
	21st to end	Day	54% 5% 12% 19% 10% 1	2340
May	1st to 10th	Day	50% 4 11% 23% 10% 1	2422
	11th to 20th	Day	45% 6% 12% 26% 10% 1	2483
	21st to end	Day	45% 7% 13% 24% 10% 1	2757
June	1st to 10th	Day	39% 8% 18% 26% 9%	2700
	11th to 20th	Day	44% 7% 13% 24% 11% 1	2700
	21st to end	Day	39% 9% 16% 27% 9%	2700
July	1st to 10th	Day	30% 7% 17% 33% 13% 1	2626
	11th to 20th	Day	36% 8% 16% 26% 12% 2	2619
	21st to end	Day	30% 8% 17% 30% 13% 1	2606
August	1st to 10th	Day	34% 8% 16% 31% 9% 2	2314
	11th to 20th	Day	39% 7% 17% 28% 9% 1	2301
	21st to end	Day	33% 6% 15% 31% 14% 1	2560
September	1st to 10th	Day	37% 5% 15% 33% 11%	2160
	11th to 20th	Day	42% 5% 19% 26% 8%	2050
	21st to end	Day	45% 6% 13% 30% 6%	1949
October	1st to 10th	Day	48% 5% 14% 25% 7% 1	1800
	11th to 20th	Day	51% 5% 11% 21% 10% 1	1800
	21st to end	Day	56% 5% 13% 19% 6%	1913
November	1st to 10th	Day	53% 6% 12% 19% 10% 1	1488
	11th to 20th	Day	62% 5% 12% 14% 7% 1	1520
	21st to end	Day	56% 7% 16% 13% 7% 1	1520
December	1st to 10th	Day	61% 5% 12% 16% 5%	1520
	11th to 20th	Day	62% 5% 11% 18% 4	1690
	21st to end	Day	68% 4 6% 16% 6%	2442
January	1st to 10th	Night	53% 7% 10% 20% 9% 1	2837
	11th to 20th	Night	61% 6% 10% 14% 7% 1	2744
	21st to end	Night	60% 6% 8% 17% 8%	2594
February	1st to 10th	Night	47% 6% 13% 23% 10% 1	2340
	11th to 20th	Night	47% 7% 10% 21% 13% 1	2274
	21st to end	Night	52% 6% 9% 20% 11% 1	1924
March	1st to 10th	Night	51% 6% 13% 20% 10%	2021
	11th to 20th	Night	47% 5% 11% 24% 12% 1	1980
	21st to end	Night	52% 5% 13% 21% 8% 2	2178
April	1st to 10th	Night	47% 5% 11% 21% 14% 1	1828
	11th to 20th	Night	50% 5% 9% 20% 15% 2	1630
	21st to end	Night	49% 6% 12% 20% 12% 1	1620
May	1st to 10th	Night	44% 6% 12% 24% 13% 1	1536
	11th to 20th	Night	41% 7% 14% 23% 13% 2	1417
	21st to end	Night	41% 6% 14% 22% 14% 2	1516
June	1st to 10th	Night	33% 8% 21% 29% 7% 1	1260
	11th to 20th	Night	34% 7% 17% 26% 15% 2	1260
	21st to end	Night	31% 6% 20% 30% 11% 2	1260
July	1st to 10th	Night	21% 8% 20% 32% 18% 1	1225
	11th to 20th	Night	24% 6% 17% 34% 16% 3	1218
	21st to end	Night	22% 7% 17% 33% 18% 2	1466
August	1st to 10th	Night	26% 6% 17% 36% 12% 3	1601
	11th to 20th	Night	31% 6% 17% 34% 11% 1	1600
	21st to end	Night	27% 6% 14% 33% 18% 2	1795
September	1st to 10th	Night	32% 7% 15% 34% 12% 1	1800
	11th to 20th	Night	34% 6% 18% 31% 11%	1908
	21st to end	Night	38% 5% 12% 35% 10%	1993
October	1st to 10th	Night	44% 6% 12% 26% 11% 1	2160
	11th to 20th	Night	47% 5% 11% 26% 10%	2160
	21st to end	Night	54% 5% 13% 21% 7%	2441
November	1st to 10th	Night	50% 5% 10% 23% 10% 2	2589
	11th to 20th	Night	59% 5% 13% 14% 8% 1	2660
	21st to end	Night	51% 7% 16% 19% 6% 1	2660
December	1st to 10th	Night	59% 7% 13% 15% 5%	2660
	11th to 20th	Night	61% 6% 11% 15% 6% 1	3501
	21st to end	Night	67% 5% 9% 13% 7%	5225

Seeing (when cloud cover <= 80%)
Color Meanings: Too cloudy to forecast Bad 1/5 Poor 2/5 Average 3/5 Good 4/5 Excellent 5/5
Month	Days in Month		Occurrence of each Forecast	Data Points
January	1st to 10th	Day	14% 13% 33% 28% 9% 2	270
	11th to 20th	Day	16% 10% 36% 30% 8%	249
	21st to end	Day	14% 11% 38% 23% 10% 3	264
February	1st to 10th	Day	16% 15% 47% 18% 3	240
	11th to 20th	Day	18% 17% 39% 16% 9% 2	240
	21st to end	Day	14% 12% 43% 23% 7% 1	198
March	1st to 10th	Day	16% 14% 42% 23% 5% 1	240
	11th to 20th	Day	18% 11% 34% 22% 13% 2	240
	21st to end	Day	20% 12% 35% 20% 11% 2	264
April	1st to 10th	Day	22% 17% 34% 20% 7% 1	392
	11th to 20th	Day	25% 14% 29% 21% 9% 1	554
	21st to end	Day	25% 11% 30% 20% 13% 1	600
May	1st to 10th	Day	21% 13% 32% 22% 10% 1	603
	11th to 20th	Day	20% 11% 31% 25% 11% 3	625
	21st to end	Day	18% 9% 29% 30% 13% 2	679
June	1st to 10th	Day	12% 9% 31% 30% 15% 4	630
	11th to 20th	Day	15% 12% 37% 27% 7% 2	630
	21st to end	Day	13% 7% 32% 28% 13% 6%	630
July	1st to 10th	Day	9% 6% 27% 28% 24% 6%	621
	11th to 20th	Day	11% 8% 28% 28% 21% 4	618
	21st to end	Day	6% 4 30% 30% 22% 7%	684
August	1st to 10th	Day	10% 5% 24% 33% 23% 5%	626
	11th to 20th	Day	15% 6% 24% 30% 18% 8%	615
	21st to end	Day	13% 8% 25% 30% 20% 4	679
September	1st to 10th	Day	12% 6% 34% 30% 17% 2	450
	11th to 20th	Day	16% 8% 28% 32% 13% 3	340
	21st to end	Day	20% 14% 34% 20% 11% 1	270
October	1st to 10th	Day	20% 7% 35% 22% 11% 4	270
	11th to 20th	Day	20% 14% 36% 26% 5%	270
	21st to end	Day	26% 17% 35% 14% 7% 1	297
November	1st to 10th	Day	19% 13% 38% 21% 9% 1	270
	11th to 20th	Day	18% 20% 40% 19% 3	270
	21st to end	Day	21% 18% 36% 21% 4	270
December	1st to 10th	Day	14% 14% 42% 23% 6% 1	270
	11th to 20th	Day	15% 15% 41% 24% 5%	270
	21st to end	Day	21% 15% 35% 23% 4 2	297
January	1st to 10th	Night	12% 12% 35% 29% 10% 2	950
	11th to 20th	Night	15% 9% 38% 29% 7% 1	920
	21st to end	Night	15% 13% 39% 25% 7% 1	990
February	1st to 10th	Night	12% 14% 35% 30% 8% 1	900
	11th to 20th	Night	11% 14% 41% 24% 8% 2	879
	21st to end	Night	14% 13% 36% 27% 9% 2	740
March	1st to 10th	Night	15% 12% 36% 25% 11% 1	581
	11th to 20th	Night	16% 9% 41% 27% 6% 1	540
	21st to end	Night	22% 9% 29% 25% 13% 2	594
April	1st to 10th	Night	18% 10% 36% 28% 7% 1	540
	11th to 20th	Night	22% 9% 33% 26% 9% 1	533
	21st to end	Night	21% 9% 30% 30% 10%	540
May	1st to 10th	Night	19% 8% 33% 30% 9% 1	540
	11th to 20th	Night	19% 7% 33% 31% 11% 1	531
	21st to end	Night	16% 7% 29% 35% 13%	584
June	1st to 10th	Night	15% 6% 31% 33% 15% 1	540
	11th to 20th	Night	11% 6% 30% 43% 9%	540
	21st to end	Night	11% 5% 26% 40% 17% 1	540
July	1st to 10th	Night	6% 2 22% 45% 23% 2	525
	11th to 20th	Night	7% 3 29% 42% 17% 1	522
	21st to end	Night	5% 2 28% 41% 21% 3	591
August	1st to 10th	Night	7% 2 22% 46% 22% 1	537
	11th to 20th	Night	14% 4 19% 38% 22% 3	534
	21st to end	Night	12% 4 26% 36% 21% 2	594
September	1st to 10th	Night	12% 5% 28% 38% 16% 2	540
	11th to 20th	Night	9% 7% 32% 36% 14% 1	540
	21st to end	Night	16% 7% 35% 29% 11% 2	553
October	1st to 10th	Night	19% 10% 32% 28% 10% 1	720
	11th to 20th	Night	20% 11% 35% 27% 7%	720
	21st to end	Night	24% 12% 32% 26% 5%	857
November	1st to 10th	Night	18% 11% 34% 29% 9%	925
	11th to 20th	Night	18% 14% 34% 26% 7% 1	950
	21st to end	Night	16% 15% 39% 23% 6%	950
December	1st to 10th	Night	13% 14% 36% 28% 9% 1	950
	11th to 20th	Night	19% 12% 37% 25% 6% 1	950
	21st to end	Night	25% 10% 35% 23% 6% 1	1045

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