Black Mesa Observatory
Clear Sky Chart
History

This sumarizes the distribution of each different forecast outcome for the Black Mesa Observatory clear sky chart from 2005-11-06 to 2024-01-12.

This page is a summary of past forecasts. Even though it's based only on forecasts, some people use these pages as clue to a site's climate. But climate data based on actual observation should be preferred (if you can find it!).

Cloud, Transparency and Seeing forecasts are summarized individually. But because good observing conditions require a combination of minimum cloud cover, transparency and seeing, the individual forecast summaries can be difficult to interpret. The observing conditions section counts the combinations of conditions needed for common types of astronomical observation.

Observing Conditions

The following tables count the occurrence of the combinations of forecast and darkness conditions needed for different observations. Conditions are rated by by what percentage of the hours the observation would likely be attempted are usable.

Observation Type	Minimum conditions for hour to be usable				Out of hours
	Clear of Clouds	Transparency	Seeing	Sky Brightness
Planetary:	50%	(no limit)	Average	(no limit)	Nighttime Hours
Deep Sky:	70%	Average	(no limit)	5.9	Nighttime Hours
CCD Imaging:	70%	Below Average	Poor	(no limit)	Nighttime Hours

Percentages are of nighttime hours per month, or per year, when a particular observing conditions was met. Deep Sky percentages never exceed 50% because the moon is up half the time. Deep sky percentages are much lower for charts at high latitudes because of fewer dark hours in the summer.

Overall

By Month

Individual Forecasts

The length of each colored bar in the "occurrence of each Forecast" column is proportional to the number of times the chart forecast that color. The percentages are of the total number of hours per month, or per year, with a particular forecast. The colors as the same as those used in clear sky charts.

Note: Transparency probabilities are only counted for those hours that have 30% or less cloud cover. Seeing probabilities are only counted for those hours that have 80% or less cloud cover. If that's too tricky, try Observing Conditions instead.

Overall

		Occurrence of each Forecast	Data Points
Cloud Cover	Day	3 3 2 4 4 3 4 4 5% 7% 62%	74987
	Night	3 3 1 3 3 2 4 4 5% 7% 64%	74781
Transparency	Day	23% 5% 7% 16% 28% 21%	74713
	Night	20% 4 8% 18% 29% 20%	74576
Seeing	Day	6% 11% 22% 28% 22% 10%	13560
	Night	4 7% 24% 37% 24% 4	23730

By Month

Percentage Cloud Cover SW (2006-)
Color Meanings: Overcast 90% covered 80% covered 70% covered 60% covered 50% covered 40% covered 30% covered 20% covered 10% covered Clear
Month	Days in Month		Occurrence of each Forecast	Data Points
January	1st to 10th	Day	2 5% 2 4 4 2 5% 5% 5% 7% 60%	1708
	11th to 20th	Day	3 4 2 3 4 2 3 3 5% 6% 64%	1633
	21st to end	Day	2 5% 2 4 4 2 4 4 5% 7% 62%	1782
February	1st to 10th	Day	1 6% 1 4 3 2 3 2 4 7% 67%	1620
	11th to 20th	Day	3 5% 3 4 3 2 3 3 5% 7% 60%	1648
	21st to end	Day	3 5% 2 4 4 2 5% 3 4 6% 62%	1605
March	1st to 10th	Day	2 4 1 4 4 3 4 4 6% 8% 60%	1980
	11th to 20th	Day	3 5% 2 3 4 2 3 5% 5% 6% 63%	1980
	21st to end	Day	2 4 1 3 3 2 4 4 5% 7% 65%	2178
April	1st to 10th	Day	1 3 1 2 3 2 4 4 4 7% 68%	2029
	11th to 20th	Day	3 4 1 2 3 1 2 3 4 5% 71%	2131
	21st to end	Day	2 2 1 2 3 2 3 3 4 6% 71%	2160
May	1st to 10th	Day	2 2 1 3 3 2 3 3 4 5% 71%	2333
	11th to 20th	Day	2 2 1 4 4 2 4 4 4 6% 67%	2301
	21st to end	Day	2 2 1 2 3 2 2 2 3 5% 74%	2530
June	1st to 10th	Day	1 1 1 1 3 2 3 3 4 7% 73%	2340
	11th to 20th	Day	2 1 1 1 2 1 2 3 3 4 80%	2340
	21st to end	Day	2 2 1 3 3 3 5% 5% 4 6% 65%	2340
July	1st to 10th	Day	4 3 2 4 6% 4 6% 7% 7% 9% 48%	2340
	11th to 20th	Day	4 3 2 6% 7% 5% 8% 8% 9% 10% 38%	2340
	21st to end	Day	6% 4 3 7% 8% 6% 10% 8% 9% 11% 29%	2545
August	1st to 10th	Day	7% 4 3 5% 7% 4 7% 7% 7% 8% 40%	2328
	11th to 20th	Day	4 4 2 5% 7% 5% 8% 8% 9% 9% 38%	2275
	21st to end	Day	5% 3 2 5% 6% 4 7% 6% 7% 9% 48%	2376
September	1st to 10th	Day	6% 4 1 4 6% 4 5% 5% 7% 7% 51%	2104
	11th to 20th	Day	3 2 2 3 4 3 4 5% 4 6% 65%	1980
	21st to end	Day	3 3 1 3 3 2 2 3 4 6% 70%	1980
October	1st to 10th	Day	5% 2 1 3 3 1 4 3 4 4 69%	1832
	11th to 20th	Day	3 2 1 2 2 1 2 2 3 3 80%	1800
	21st to end	Day	2 2 1 3 2 1 2 2 3 5% 76%	1980
November	1st to 10th	Day	1 2 1 2 2 1 3 2 3 6% 76%	1859
	11th to 20th	Day	2 2 1 2 3 2 2 3 4 5% 73%	1875
	21st to end	Day	3 4 1 4 4 2 4 4 3 5% 66%	1710
December	1st to 10th	Day	4 5% 1 4 4 2 3 3 4 7% 63%	1710
	11th to 20th	Day	3 6% 2 6% 5% 3 5% 5% 5% 7% 52%	2169
	21st to end	Day	3 6% 2 5% 5% 4 4 5% 4 5% 57%	3146
January	1st to 10th	Night	3 4 2 3 3 2 3 4 4 7% 63%	2457
	11th to 20th	Night	3 4 2 3 2 2 3 4 4 6% 65%	2366
	21st to end	Night	3 5% 2 3 4 2 4 5% 5% 6% 62%	2574
February	1st to 10th	Night	2 5% 1 3 3 1 2 4 4 6% 69%	2340
	11th to 20th	Night	3 5% 2 4 3 2 4 4 5% 7% 61%	2197
	21st to end	Night	2 3 2 3 3 2 3 4 4 7% 66%	1650
March	1st to 10th	Night	2 4 1 2 3 2 3 4 6% 7% 67%	1980
	11th to 20th	Night	4 4 1 2 2 2 3 4 4 6% 68%	1980
	21st to end	Night	3 4 1 2 3 3 3 3 5% 8% 65%	2178
April	1st to 10th	Night	2 3 1 2 3 2 2 3 5% 6% 70%	1931
	11th to 20th	Night	3 3 2 4 3 2 2 4 4 5% 70%	1777
	21st to end	Night	1 2 1 2 3 1 2 3 4 5% 75%	1800
May	1st to 10th	Night	2 3 1 2 3 2 2 2 3 7% 73%	1622
	11th to 20th	Night	2 2 2 3 4 3 3 3 4 7% 70%	1594
	21st to end	Night	2 2 1 2 2 2 2 3 3 4 78%	1746
June	1st to 10th	Night	2 2 1 2 2 2 3 3 5% 7% 71%	1620
	11th to 20th	Night	1 1 1 1 2 1 2 3 4 5% 78%	1620
	21st to end	Night	2 3 1 2 4 2 4 4 5% 6% 67%	1620
July	1st to 10th	Night	5% 3 2 5% 5% 3 7% 6% 7% 9% 48%	1620
	11th to 20th	Night	5% 5% 2 5% 6% 5% 8% 8% 8% 10% 38%	1620
	21st to end	Night	7% 4 3 6% 7% 4 7% 9% 9% 13% 29%	1773
August	1st to 10th	Night	3 3 2 5% 6% 3 6% 7% 8% 11% 46%	1611
	11th to 20th	Night	4 3 2 5% 6% 5% 7% 8% 8% 10% 42%	1624
	21st to end	Night	4 2 2 5% 5% 4 7% 7% 9% 9% 46%	1980
September	1st to 10th	Night	5% 4 2 6% 6% 3 5% 6% 7% 9% 48%	1852
	11th to 20th	Night	4 3 1 3 3 2 3 4 4 6% 68%	1980
	21st to end	Night	3 2 1 2 3 2 3 3 4 5% 71%	1980
October	1st to 10th	Night	3 2 1 3 3 2 3 3 4 5% 71%	2128
	11th to 20th	Night	2 1 1 2 2 1 1 2 3 4 80%	2160
	21st to end	Night	2 2 1 2 2 1 2 2 3 4 78%	2376
November	1st to 10th	Night	2 2 1 2 2 2 4 3 4 6% 73%	2220
	11th to 20th	Night	2 2 1 2 2 1 2 3 3 5% 77%	2303
	21st to end	Night	3 4 1 2 3 1 3 4 4 7% 67%	2470
December	1st to 10th	Night	4 4 1 3 4 2 3 3 4 7% 65%	2470
	11th to 20th	Night	4 4 2 4 4 2 5% 4 6% 8% 56%	3041
	21st to end	Night	4 5% 2 4 4 3 3 5% 5% 6% 58%	4521

Transparency (when cloud cover <= 30%)
Color Meanings: Too cloudy to forecast Poor Below Average Average Above average Transparent
Month	Days in Month		Occurrence of each Forecast	Data Points
January	1st to 10th	Day	24% 5% 7% 24% 28% 12%	1709
	11th to 20th	Day	21% 5% 7% 22% 37% 9%	1633
	21st to end	Day	22% 4 7% 19% 36% 12%	1782
February	1st to 10th	Day	21% 3 7% 19% 30% 20%	1620
	11th to 20th	Day	25% 4 6% 22% 25% 19%	1657
	21st to end	Day	24% 3 5% 16% 30% 22%	1605
March	1st to 10th	Day	21% 4 6% 16% 35% 18%	1980
	11th to 20th	Day	23% 3 5% 16% 35% 19%	1980
	21st to end	Day	19% 4 7% 18% 36% 16%	2178
April	1st to 10th	Day	17% 3 5% 16% 37% 21%	2029
	11th to 20th	Day	17% 3 4 13% 34% 29%	2134
	21st to end	Day	16% 3 5% 14% 39% 24%	2160
May	1st to 10th	Day	17% 3 5% 13% 35% 29%	2333
	11th to 20th	Day	20% 4 6% 12% 32% 26%	2304
	21st to end	Day	15% 3 3 10% 34% 34%	2530
June	1st to 10th	Day	11% 4 3 10% 31% 41%	2340
	11th to 20th	Day	10% 2 3 6% 22% 55%	2340
	21st to end	Day	20% 5% 5% 10% 25% 36%	2340
July	1st to 10th	Day	31% 9% 9% 14% 12% 25%	2276
	11th to 20th	Day	36% 12% 17% 18% 10% 8%	2271
	21st to end	Day	43% 15% 16% 15% 8% 2	2404
August	1st to 10th	Day	38% 12% 12% 12% 13% 13%	2313
	11th to 20th	Day	36% 11% 14% 14% 15% 10%	2275
	21st to end	Day	32% 10% 10% 18% 23% 7%	2376
September	1st to 10th	Day	32% 7% 9% 14% 20% 18%	2104
	11th to 20th	Day	21% 7% 6% 13% 31% 22%	1980
	21st to end	Day	18% 5% 5% 14% 30% 27%	1980
October	1st to 10th	Day	20% 5% 6% 17% 26% 26%	1832
	11th to 20th	Day	12% 2 2 11% 35% 38%	1800
	21st to end	Day	14% 3 5% 14% 43% 21%	1980
November	1st to 10th	Day	12% 3 3 24% 37% 21%	1859
	11th to 20th	Day	14% 3 4 20% 37% 22%	1875
	21st to end	Day	22% 4 4 16% 34% 21%	1710
December	1st to 10th	Day	22% 4 8% 21% 30% 15%	1710
	11th to 20th	Day	31% 4 10% 21% 20% 13%	2168
	21st to end	Day	29% 4 6% 19% 29% 12%	3146
January	1st to 10th	Night	21% 6% 7% 24% 31% 11%	2457
	11th to 20th	Night	20% 4 6% 26% 35% 9%	2366
	21st to end	Night	23% 4 7% 19% 36% 10%	2574
February	1st to 10th	Night	19% 3 9% 20% 30% 19%	2340
	11th to 20th	Night	23% 4 8% 22% 24% 19%	2198
	21st to end	Night	18% 3 5% 19% 34% 21%	1650
March	1st to 10th	Night	18% 4 5% 19% 37% 18%	1980
	11th to 20th	Night	18% 3 5% 18% 37% 19%	1980
	21st to end	Night	19% 3 7% 21% 36% 14%	2178
April	1st to 10th	Night	16% 2 6% 20% 37% 19%	1931
	11th to 20th	Night	18% 3 4 14% 38% 24%	1777
	21st to end	Night	12% 2 7% 17% 39% 23%	1800
May	1st to 10th	Night	15% 3 7% 15% 34% 27%	1622
	11th to 20th	Night	17% 3 7% 17% 34% 23%	1595
	21st to end	Night	12% 2 5% 13% 36% 33%	1746
June	1st to 10th	Night	14% 4 3 10% 28% 41%	1620
	11th to 20th	Night	10% 3 2 7% 24% 54%	1620
	21st to end	Night	18% 5% 5% 11% 23% 39%	1620
July	1st to 10th	Night	30% 7% 12% 16% 11% 24%	1575
	11th to 20th	Night	34% 10% 20% 19% 9% 8%	1566
	21st to end	Night	40% 12% 21% 16% 8% 2	1674
August	1st to 10th	Night	29% 11% 16% 14% 14% 15%	1602
	11th to 20th	Night	33% 9% 18% 15% 12% 12%	1624
	21st to end	Night	29% 10% 14% 22% 19% 7%	1980
September	1st to 10th	Night	30% 7% 13% 14% 20% 15%	1852
	11th to 20th	Night	18% 4 7% 19% 29% 22%	1980
	21st to end	Night	14% 4 6% 15% 33% 27%	1980
October	1st to 10th	Night	17% 3 8% 19% 26% 27%	2128
	11th to 20th	Night	11% 2 4 14% 30% 40%	2160
	21st to end	Night	13% 2 5% 17% 38% 25%	2376
November	1st to 10th	Night	14% 2 4 21% 38% 20%	2220
	11th to 20th	Night	12% 2 6% 20% 35% 25%	2303
	21st to end	Night	18% 4 6% 18% 34% 20%	2470
December	1st to 10th	Night	20% 4 7% 23% 29% 17%	2470
	11th to 20th	Night	26% 5% 9% 21% 26% 12%	3041
	21st to end	Night	26% 4 8% 20% 24% 19%	4521

Seeing (when cloud cover <= 80%)
Color Meanings: Too cloudy to forecast Bad 1/5 Poor 2/5 Average 3/5 Good 4/5 Excellent 5/5
Month	Days in Month		Occurrence of each Forecast	Data Points
January	1st to 10th	Day	6% 15% 27% 33% 17% 3	270
	11th to 20th	Day	9% 13% 21% 29% 22% 6%	245
	21st to end	Day	5% 13% 25% 34% 18% 6%	264
February	1st to 10th	Day	4 12% 27% 30% 22% 5%	240
	11th to 20th	Day	12% 19% 25% 32% 12% 1	313
	21st to end	Day	10% 29% 28% 23% 8% 1	346
March	1st to 10th	Day	10% 24% 30% 23% 11% 2	420
	11th to 20th	Day	6% 24% 23% 27% 15% 4	420
	21st to end	Day	10% 24% 33% 20% 10% 2	462
April	1st to 10th	Day	5% 18% 33% 26% 15% 4	420
	11th to 20th	Day	12% 18% 33% 23% 11% 2	412
	21st to end	Day	7% 20% 32% 24% 12% 5%	420
May	1st to 10th	Day	4 16% 35% 27% 15% 3	423
	11th to 20th	Day	2 15% 27% 30% 19% 7%	448
	21st to end	Day	7% 14% 29% 28% 18% 4	485
June	1st to 10th	Day	2 6% 30% 33% 22% 6%	450
	11th to 20th	Day	2 7% 26% 33% 18% 13%	450
	21st to end	Day	2 3 22% 41% 24% 8%	450
July	1st to 10th	Day	4 2 11% 32% 31% 20%	446
	11th to 20th	Day	5% 7% 23% 36% 28%	444
	21st to end	Day	6% 1 10% 21% 31% 32%	487
August	1st to 10th	Day	6% 1 9% 26% 35% 23%	447
	11th to 20th	Day	6% 3 9% 23% 38% 22%	437
	21st to end	Day	6% 8% 25% 36% 24%	495
September	1st to 10th	Day	7% 2 16% 24% 34% 16%	450
	11th to 20th	Day	5% 2 21% 32% 29% 11%	450
	21st to end	Day	5% 8% 19% 28% 25% 15%	450
October	1st to 10th	Day	8% 6% 23% 25% 25% 14%	302
	11th to 20th	Day	6% 8% 19% 26% 32% 10%	270
	21st to end	Day	5% 8% 21% 27% 31% 9%	297
November	1st to 10th	Day	7% 9% 24% 30% 22% 7%	270
	11th to 20th	Day	3 8% 17% 33% 29% 10%	270
	21st to end	Day	6% 16% 23% 31% 17% 8%	270
December	1st to 10th	Day	9% 10% 20% 33% 23% 5%	270
	11th to 20th	Day	7% 11% 28% 33% 16% 5%	270
	21st to end	Day	11% 19% 25% 32% 12% 2	297
January	1st to 10th	Night	5% 9% 24% 37% 20% 5%	760
	11th to 20th	Night	5% 9% 22% 40% 19% 5%	728
	21st to end	Night	5% 10% 27% 37% 17% 4	792
February	1st to 10th	Night	5% 7% 31% 38% 15% 4	720
	11th to 20th	Night	5% 14% 34% 34% 12% 2	704
	21st to end	Night	5% 16% 36% 32% 10% 1	592
March	1st to 10th	Night	4 16% 34% 33% 12% 1	720
	11th to 20th	Night	6% 9% 30% 35% 17% 3	720
	21st to end	Night	5% 10% 36% 36% 12% 2	792
April	1st to 10th	Night	3 11% 37% 35% 12% 1	671
	11th to 20th	Night	4 16% 38% 30% 11% 1	533
	21st to end	Night	3 9% 40% 32% 15% 2	540
May	1st to 10th	Night	4 6% 36% 40% 13% 1	540
	11th to 20th	Night	3 5% 32% 41% 17% 2	531
	21st to end	Night	2 7% 34% 40% 16% 1	584
June	1st to 10th	Night	2 3 27% 49% 18%	540
	11th to 20th	Night	2 2 27% 50% 17% 1	540
	21st to end	Night	3 2 20% 45% 28% 2	540
July	1st to 10th	Night	5% 1 10% 44% 37% 3	525
	11th to 20th	Night	8% 1 8% 28% 50% 6%	522
	21st to end	Night	9% 1 9% 21% 49% 11%	591
August	1st to 10th	Night	4 1 6% 26% 52% 11%	537
	11th to 20th	Night	5% 1 9% 32% 45% 8%	534
	21st to end	Night	4 1 7% 30% 49% 9%	594
September	1st to 10th	Night	6% 2 11% 38% 39% 5%	592
	11th to 20th	Night	5% 1 11% 39% 38% 6%	720
	21st to end	Night	3 4 16% 39% 33% 6%	720
October	1st to 10th	Night	3 4 26% 41% 21% 5%	720
	11th to 20th	Night	2 4 19% 45% 26% 4	720
	21st to end	Night	3 6% 20% 37% 28% 7%	792
November	1st to 10th	Night	3 6% 24% 38% 25% 5%	740
	11th to 20th	Night	3 5% 23% 40% 23% 6%	760
	21st to end	Night	5% 9% 26% 33% 23% 4	760
December	1st to 10th	Night	7% 8% 23% 36% 24% 2	760
	11th to 20th	Night	6% 10% 29% 36% 18% 2	760
	21st to end	Night	7% 10% 31% 34% 14% 4	836

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