Bear Dance Observatory
Clear Sky Chart
History

This sumarizes the distribution of each different forecast outcome for the Bear Dance Observatory clear sky chart from 2005-11-06 to 2024-01-12.

This page is a summary of past forecasts. Even though it's based only on forecasts, some people use these pages as clue to a site's climate. But climate data based on actual observation should be preferred (if you can find it!).

Cloud, Transparency and Seeing forecasts are summarized individually. But because good observing conditions require a combination of minimum cloud cover, transparency and seeing, the individual forecast summaries can be difficult to interpret. The observing conditions section counts the combinations of conditions needed for common types of astronomical observation.

Observing Conditions

The following tables count the occurrence of the combinations of forecast and darkness conditions needed for different observations. Conditions are rated by by what percentage of the hours the observation would likely be attempted are usable.

Observation Type	Minimum conditions for hour to be usable				Out of hours
	Clear of Clouds	Transparency	Seeing	Sky Brightness
Planetary:	50%	(no limit)	Average	(no limit)	Nighttime Hours
Deep Sky:	70%	Average	(no limit)	5.9	Nighttime Hours
CCD Imaging:	70%	Below Average	Poor	(no limit)	Nighttime Hours

Percentages are of nighttime hours per month, or per year, when a particular observing conditions was met. Deep Sky percentages never exceed 50% because the moon is up half the time. Deep sky percentages are much lower for charts at high latitudes because of fewer dark hours in the summer.

Overall

By Month

Individual Forecasts

The length of each colored bar in the "occurrence of each Forecast" column is proportional to the number of times the chart forecast that color. The percentages are of the total number of hours per month, or per year, with a particular forecast. The colors as the same as those used in clear sky charts.

Note: Transparency probabilities are only counted for those hours that have 30% or less cloud cover. Seeing probabilities are only counted for those hours that have 80% or less cloud cover. If that's too tricky, try Observing Conditions instead.

Overall

		Occurrence of each Forecast	Data Points
Cloud Cover	Day	5% 5% 2 4 4 3 4 5% 6% 8% 52%	74770
	Night	4 5% 2 4 4 2 4 4 5% 7% 58%	74956
Transparency	Day	28% 7% 11% 23% 22% 9%	74478
	Night	25% 6% 11% 25% 24% 9%	74771
Seeing	Day	9% 13% 31% 28% 15% 3	14388
	Night	6% 7% 33% 39% 13% 1	24538

By Month

Percentage Cloud Cover SW (2006-)
Color Meanings: Overcast 90% covered 80% covered 70% covered 60% covered 50% covered 40% covered 30% covered 20% covered 10% covered Clear
Month	Days in Month		Occurrence of each Forecast	Data Points
January	1st to 10th	Day	1 4 2 4 4 2 3 4 4 8% 64%	1518
	11th to 20th	Day	2 6% 3 6% 3 2 3 4 4 5% 61%	1502
	21st to end	Day	1 5% 3 6% 4 2 3 4 4 8% 59%	1782
February	1st to 10th	Day	1 7% 4 6% 5% 3 3 3 5% 8% 56%	1620
	11th to 20th	Day	1 4 3 5% 3 3 4 5% 6% 8% 58%	1749
	21st to end	Day	1 6% 3 7% 4 3 4 4 5% 5% 58%	1480
March	1st to 10th	Day	3 5% 2 5% 5% 3 4 5% 5% 7% 57%	1800
	11th to 20th	Day	6% 9% 3 4 4 2 3 3 5% 9% 52%	1944
	21st to end	Day	4 9% 3 5% 5% 3 4 4 6% 8% 49%	2317
April	1st to 10th	Day	6% 8% 2 3 4 3 5% 4 6% 8% 51%	2160
	11th to 20th	Day	6% 9% 3 6% 5% 3 5% 4 6% 8% 46%	2131
	21st to end	Day	8% 9% 2 5% 5% 3 5% 5% 6% 8% 44%	2160
May	1st to 10th	Day	9% 9% 3 5% 6% 4 5% 6% 7% 8% 39%	2267
	11th to 20th	Day	11% 8% 2 4 4 3 5% 7% 8% 9% 39%	2434
	21st to end	Day	7% 5% 2 4 5% 3 6% 7% 7% 9% 45%	2724
June	1st to 10th	Day	5% 4 2 3 4 3 6% 6% 8% 9% 49%	2520
	11th to 20th	Day	5% 4 2 3 5% 3 5% 6% 8% 10% 50%	2520
	21st to end	Day	4 4 2 4 5% 3 6% 8% 9% 9% 47%	2520
July	1st to 10th	Day	8% 3 2 4 5% 3 6% 7% 8% 9% 45%	2520
	11th to 20th	Day	4 4 3 4 5% 3 6% 7% 7% 11% 46%	2520
	21st to end	Day	7% 5% 3 5% 6% 5% 7% 7% 8% 10% 38%	2685
August	1st to 10th	Day	7% 5% 2 5% 6% 4 7% 8% 9% 10% 37%	2307
	11th to 20th	Day	6% 4 1 3 5% 3 6% 6% 7% 8% 51%	2123
	21st to end	Day	5% 4 2 5% 5% 4 5% 5% 7% 9% 51%	2376
September	1st to 10th	Day	6% 5% 1 3 4 3 4 5% 5% 7% 57%	2160
	11th to 20th	Day	7% 3 1 3 4 2 5% 5% 5% 6% 59%	2132
	21st to end	Day	5% 3 1 3 4 2 3 4 5% 5% 64%	1980
October	1st to 10th	Day	6% 5% 1 3 3 3 3 4 5% 6% 60%	1832
	11th to 20th	Day	4 3 1 3 3 2 3 3 4 6% 69%	1800
	21st to end	Day	5% 6% 3 3 3 1 2 4 4 6% 63%	1915
November	1st to 10th	Day	1 4 2 3 3 2 3 4 5% 9% 65%	1673
	11th to 20th	Day	2 5% 2 4 3 2 3 3 5% 8% 63%	1710
	21st to end	Day	2 6% 3 4 4 2 2 4 4 6% 63%	1649
December	1st to 10th	Day	1 5% 3 5% 5% 2 3 3 5% 9% 59%	1520
	11th to 20th	Day	2 5% 2 6% 4 3 4 3 5% 8% 60%	1926
	21st to end	Day	1 5% 3 8% 5% 3 4 4 5% 7% 55%	2794
January	1st to 10th	Night	1 4 2 5% 4 2 3 3 4 6% 65%	2647
	11th to 20th	Night	2 5% 2 4 3 2 3 3 4 7% 65%	2501
	21st to end	Night	1 5% 3 6% 4 3 4 4 4 7% 61%	2574
February	1st to 10th	Night	1 6% 3 6% 4 2 3 3 4 7% 60%	2338
	11th to 20th	Night	2 6% 3 6% 4 2 3 4 5% 8% 57%	2098
	21st to end	Night	2 7% 3 5% 4 2 3 3 4 6% 62%	1776
March	1st to 10th	Night	3 4 3 4 4 2 4 5% 6% 7% 58%	2160
	11th to 20th	Night	5% 7% 2 5% 3 2 4 4 5% 7% 56%	2012
	21st to end	Night	4 6% 4 4 4 3 4 4 4 8% 56%	2037
April	1st to 10th	Night	4 8% 2 4 4 2 4 3 4 6% 59%	1800
	11th to 20th	Night	7% 10% 3 4 3 2 4 4 5% 5% 52%	1777
	21st to end	Night	9% 10% 2 4 5% 3 4 5% 4 7% 49%	1800
May	1st to 10th	Night	9% 7% 3 5% 5% 2 4 4 6% 8% 46%	1692
	11th to 20th	Night	12% 8% 2 4 4 3 3 5% 5% 8% 46%	1457
	21st to end	Night	7% 6% 2 4 4 2 5% 5% 5% 9% 51%	1552
June	1st to 10th	Night	5% 3 1 3 2 3 4 4 6% 12% 57%	1440
	11th to 20th	Night	5% 2 1 3 3 2 3 4 6% 9% 62%	1440
	21st to end	Night	5% 2 2 3 3 3 4 7% 7% 9% 56%	1440
July	1st to 10th	Night	6% 4 2 4 6% 3 6% 4 7% 10% 48%	1440
	11th to 20th	Night	3 3 1 4 3 4 5% 5% 7% 9% 56%	1440
	21st to end	Night	7% 3 2 4 4 3 6% 6% 9% 12% 44%	1629
August	1st to 10th	Night	6% 5% 1 5% 4 3 5% 7% 7% 11% 46%	1632
	11th to 20th	Night	5% 4 2 4 5% 3 6% 5% 6% 9% 51%	1778
	21st to end	Night	4 4 2 4 4 3 5% 5% 7% 9% 54%	1980
September	1st to 10th	Night	6% 4 1 4 4 3 4 6% 6% 7% 55%	1800
	11th to 20th	Night	6% 3 1 3 3 1 4 4 5% 7% 62%	1826
	21st to end	Night	5% 5% 2 3 3 2 3 3 4 7% 63%	1980
October	1st to 10th	Night	6% 5% 2 5% 3 2 3 4 5% 6% 59%	2124
	11th to 20th	Night	2 3 1 2 3 2 2 3 4 6% 72%	2160
	21st to end	Night	4 7% 2 4 3 1 2 3 4 6% 63%	2420
November	1st to 10th	Night	1 3 1 4 3 2 2 3 4 8% 68%	2405
	11th to 20th	Night	1 4 2 4 3 2 3 3 4 6% 66%	2470
	21st to end	Night	2 6% 3 4 4 2 3 3 4 6% 62%	2527
December	1st to 10th	Night	1 4 2 5% 4 2 3 3 5% 7% 64%	2660
	11th to 20th	Night	2 6% 2 4 4 3 4 4 6% 8% 59%	3271
	21st to end	Night	2 6% 3 6% 5% 3 5% 5% 5% 7% 54%	4873

Transparency (when cloud cover <= 30%)
Color Meanings: Too cloudy to forecast Poor Below Average Average Above average Transparent
Month	Days in Month		Occurrence of each Forecast	Data Points
January	1st to 10th	Day	19% 5% 12% 31% 26% 8%	1519
	11th to 20th	Day	25% 4 10% 28% 25% 8%	1502
	21st to end	Day	24% 5% 9% 29% 24% 8%	1782
February	1st to 10th	Day	28% 5% 11% 28% 20% 9%	1620
	11th to 20th	Day	21% 6% 10% 26% 28% 8%	1759
	21st to end	Day	27% 4 7% 23% 27% 13%	1480
March	1st to 10th	Day	26% 5% 9% 25% 25% 10%	1800
	11th to 20th	Day	30% 6% 9% 26% 23% 6%	1944
	21st to end	Day	32% 7% 10% 24% 21% 7%	2317
April	1st to 10th	Day	31% 6% 11% 23% 20% 9%	2160
	11th to 20th	Day	36% 6% 10% 20% 19% 7%	2134
	21st to end	Day	37% 8% 10% 24% 18% 3	2160
May	1st to 10th	Day	40% 8% 10% 23% 15% 4	2267
	11th to 20th	Day	39% 10% 15% 22% 12% 3	2438
	21st to end	Day	32% 9% 14% 21% 17% 8%	2724
June	1st to 10th	Day	29% 8% 13% 22% 17% 10%	2520
	11th to 20th	Day	27% 8% 11% 18% 20% 17%	2520
	21st to end	Day	29% 8% 11% 19% 21% 11%	2520
July	1st to 10th	Day	33% 10% 11% 16% 21% 10%	2451
	11th to 20th	Day	29% 9% 12% 25% 18% 7%	2445
	21st to end	Day	37% 10% 16% 20% 13% 4	2536
August	1st to 10th	Day	37% 11% 16% 18% 12% 6%	2292
	11th to 20th	Day	28% 8% 11% 22% 20% 11%	2123
	21st to end	Day	29% 7% 11% 22% 24% 7%	2376
September	1st to 10th	Day	27% 5% 9% 21% 24% 15%	2160
	11th to 20th	Day	25% 6% 9% 17% 28% 16%	2132
	21st to end	Day	22% 5% 6% 22% 34% 11%	1980
October	1st to 10th	Day	24% 6% 10% 21% 27% 11%	1832
	11th to 20th	Day	17% 4 7% 23% 34% 15%	1800
	21st to end	Day	23% 4 8% 25% 28% 13%	1915
November	1st to 10th	Day	16% 5% 10% 22% 30% 17%	1673
	11th to 20th	Day	21% 4 7% 28% 31% 10%	1710
	21st to end	Day	23% 4 8% 22% 29% 14%	1649
December	1st to 10th	Day	23% 5% 13% 26% 24% 9%	1520
	11th to 20th	Day	23% 5% 11% 25% 27% 9%	1924
	21st to end	Day	26% 7% 9% 23% 26% 9%	2794
January	1st to 10th	Night	21% 4 10% 30% 28% 7%	2647
	11th to 20th	Night	21% 4 10% 27% 29% 9%	2501
	21st to end	Night	23% 6% 8% 30% 26% 8%	2574
February	1st to 10th	Night	25% 4 11% 29% 22% 8%	2338
	11th to 20th	Night	26% 4 10% 29% 23% 8%	2098
	21st to end	Night	24% 4 5% 27% 27% 12%	1776
March	1st to 10th	Night	23% 6% 10% 24% 30% 7%	2160
	11th to 20th	Night	27% 5% 9% 26% 26% 7%	2012
	21st to end	Night	27% 6% 11% 27% 25% 5%	2037
April	1st to 10th	Night	27% 5% 12% 24% 23% 9%	1800
	11th to 20th	Night	33% 6% 10% 26% 20% 6%	1777
	21st to end	Night	36% 6% 11% 26% 18% 4	1800
May	1st to 10th	Night	36% 8% 11% 25% 16% 4	1692
	11th to 20th	Night	37% 7% 20% 22% 12% 3	1458
	21st to end	Night	30% 7% 17% 24% 15% 7%	1552
June	1st to 10th	Night	21% 8% 21% 27% 13% 10%	1440
	11th to 20th	Night	19% 6% 15% 23% 21% 17%	1440
	21st to end	Night	23% 8% 12% 23% 24% 10%	1440
July	1st to 10th	Night	31% 8% 17% 20% 18% 7%	1400
	11th to 20th	Night	23% 7% 12% 34% 19% 5%	1392
	21st to end	Night	30% 10% 24% 23% 12% 1	1539
August	1st to 10th	Night	31% 9% 21% 21% 13% 5%	1623
	11th to 20th	Night	28% 7% 12% 27% 20% 6%	1778
	21st to end	Night	25% 8% 14% 28% 20% 6%	1980
September	1st to 10th	Night	26% 6% 11% 23% 23% 11%	1800
	11th to 20th	Night	21% 5% 12% 23% 25% 15%	1826
	21st to end	Night	22% 4 9% 24% 31% 9%	1980
October	1st to 10th	Night	26% 5% 10% 22% 25% 11%	2124
	11th to 20th	Night	15% 4 9% 24% 32% 15%	2160
	21st to end	Night	24% 4 8% 25% 27% 12%	2420
November	1st to 10th	Night	17% 3 9% 25% 30% 15%	2405
	11th to 20th	Night	20% 4 7% 28% 31% 10%	2470
	21st to end	Night	25% 3 8% 23% 30% 11%	2527
December	1st to 10th	Night	21% 4 13% 27% 26% 9%	2660
	11th to 20th	Night	23% 6% 10% 25% 30% 7%	3272
	21st to end	Night	28% 7% 9% 22% 25% 8%	4873

Seeing (when cloud cover <= 80%)
Color Meanings: Too cloudy to forecast Bad 1/5 Poor 2/5 Average 3/5 Good 4/5 Excellent 5/5
Month	Days in Month		Occurrence of each Forecast	Data Points
January	1st to 10th	Day	7% 11% 38% 28% 16% 1	270
	11th to 20th	Day	9% 13% 36% 33% 9%	243
	21st to end	Day	3 17% 46% 26% 8%	264
February	1st to 10th	Day	5% 23% 48% 20% 4	240
	11th to 20th	Day	5% 19% 46% 24% 5%	240
	21st to end	Day	7% 23% 47% 20% 4	198
March	1st to 10th	Day	9% 21% 35% 29% 7%	240
	11th to 20th	Day	13% 22% 36% 20% 7% 2	384
	21st to end	Day	15% 28% 33% 19% 5%	462
April	1st to 10th	Day	15% 23% 35% 22% 5%	420
	11th to 20th	Day	20% 30% 29% 16% 5% 1	412
	21st to end	Day	19% 22% 34% 18% 6% 1	420
May	1st to 10th	Day	16% 15% 35% 25% 8% 2	530
	11th to 20th	Day	15% 12% 28% 31% 11% 3	625
	21st to end	Day	12% 16% 28% 25% 15% 3	679
June	1st to 10th	Day	9% 10% 24% 29% 22% 6%	630
	11th to 20th	Day	8% 12% 32% 29% 17% 3	630
	21st to end	Day	7% 7% 31% 29% 22% 4	630
July	1st to 10th	Day	7% 6% 19% 34% 27% 7%	621
	11th to 20th	Day	5% 4 18% 35% 31% 6%	618
	21st to end	Day	8% 4 15% 34% 32% 7%	627
August	1st to 10th	Day	11% 5% 21% 37% 20% 6%	447
	11th to 20th	Day	6% 5% 27% 36% 21% 5%	437
	21st to end	Day	8% 6% 28% 36% 18% 4	495
September	1st to 10th	Day	9% 10% 27% 32% 17% 4	450
	11th to 20th	Day	5% 9% 34% 28% 20% 4	422
	21st to end	Day	6% 9% 29% 28% 21% 6%	270
October	1st to 10th	Day	8% 17% 26% 23% 20% 7%	270
	11th to 20th	Day	3 13% 34% 31% 14% 4	270
	21st to end	Day	10% 14% 36% 26% 13% 1	297
November	1st to 10th	Day	7% 17% 31% 27% 13% 4	270
	11th to 20th	Day	5% 14% 37% 31% 10% 2	270
	21st to end	Day	8% 15% 38% 30% 8% 1	270
December	1st to 10th	Day	7% 15% 41% 26% 10% 1	270
	11th to 20th	Day	7% 14% 43% 27% 8%	270
	21st to end	Day	8% 15% 42% 27% 6% 1	297
January	1st to 10th	Night	2 8% 40% 39% 10% 1	950
	11th to 20th	Night	4 10% 39% 38% 7% 1	868
	21st to end	Night	3 6% 41% 45% 6% 1	792
February	1st to 10th	Night	4 7% 48% 36% 4 1	720
	11th to 20th	Night	4 10% 46% 34% 6%	704
	21st to end	Night	6% 10% 46% 34% 3	592
March	1st to 10th	Night	4 10% 45% 35% 7%	720
	11th to 20th	Night	8% 9% 34% 40% 9% 1	720
	21st to end	Night	7% 11% 41% 36% 6%	651
April	1st to 10th	Night	9% 11% 43% 32% 5%	540
	11th to 20th	Night	15% 13% 34% 30% 6% 1	533
	21st to end	Night	16% 10% 33% 32% 9%	540
May	1st to 10th	Night	13% 7% 30% 36% 12% 1	540
	11th to 20th	Night	16% 5% 23% 41% 14% 1	531
	21st to end	Night	9% 9% 31% 35% 14% 2	584
June	1st to 10th	Night	6% 7% 20% 44% 21% 2	540
	11th to 20th	Night	6% 6% 30% 42% 15%	540
	21st to end	Night	4 3 21% 46% 24% 1	540
July	1st to 10th	Night	7% 3 18% 40% 29% 3	525
	11th to 20th	Night	5% 3 17% 38% 34% 4	522
	21st to end	Night	7% 2 12% 43% 33% 3	591
August	1st to 10th	Night	9% 3 12% 39% 32% 4	537
	11th to 20th	Night	7% 2 18% 48% 22% 3	534
	21st to end	Night	6% 3 18% 42% 27% 4	594
September	1st to 10th	Night	8% 3 18% 43% 26% 3	540
	11th to 20th	Night	6% 3 20% 45% 23% 3	540
	21st to end	Night	7% 6% 21% 43% 21% 2	540
October	1st to 10th	Night	9% 7% 29% 38% 14% 3	684
	11th to 20th	Night	3 4 34% 44% 13% 3	720
	21st to end	Night	8% 6% 31% 38% 15% 2	836
November	1st to 10th	Night	3 9% 32% 42% 13% 1	925
	11th to 20th	Night	4 9% 40% 38% 7% 2	950
	21st to end	Night	6% 10% 33% 41% 10% 1	950
December	1st to 10th	Night	3 8% 38% 43% 7%	950
	11th to 20th	Night	5% 9% 40% 35% 10% 1	950
	21st to end	Night	5% 11% 42% 35% 6% 1	1045

Page generated at 2024-01-09 05:14:38. Version ac07

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