Ferme Alarie
Clear Sky Chart
History

This sumarizes the distribution of each different forecast outcome for the Ferme Alarie clear sky chart from 2005-11-06 to 2024-01-15.

This page is a summary of past forecasts. Even though it's based only on forecasts, some people use these pages as clue to a site's climate. But climate data based on actual observation should be preferred (if you can find it!).

Cloud, Transparency and Seeing forecasts are summarized individually. But because good observing conditions require a combination of minimum cloud cover, transparency and seeing, the individual forecast summaries can be difficult to interpret. The observing conditions section counts the combinations of conditions needed for common types of astronomical observation.

Observing Conditions

The following tables count the occurrence of the combinations of forecast and darkness conditions needed for different observations. Conditions are rated by by what percentage of the hours the observation would likely be attempted are usable.

Observation Type	Minimum conditions for hour to be usable				Out of hours
	Clear of Clouds	Transparency	Seeing	Sky Brightness
Planetary:	50%	(no limit)	Average	(no limit)	Nighttime Hours
Deep Sky:	70%	Average	(no limit)	5.9	Nighttime Hours
CCD Imaging:	70%	Below Average	Poor	(no limit)	Nighttime Hours

Percentages are of nighttime hours per month, or per year, when a particular observing conditions was met. Deep Sky percentages never exceed 50% because the moon is up half the time. Deep sky percentages are much lower for charts at high latitudes because of fewer dark hours in the summer.

Overall

By Month

Individual Forecasts

The length of each colored bar in the "occurrence of each Forecast" column is proportional to the number of times the chart forecast that color. The percentages are of the total number of hours per month, or per year, with a particular forecast. The colors as the same as those used in clear sky charts.

Note: Transparency probabilities are only counted for those hours that have 30% or less cloud cover. Seeing probabilities are only counted for those hours that have 80% or less cloud cover. If that's too tricky, try Observing Conditions instead.

Overall

		Occurrence of each Forecast	Data Points
Cloud Cover	Day	19% 11% 4 7% 6% 3 5% 4 5% 6% 29%	74762
	Night	18% 12% 4 8% 6% 3 4 4 5% 6% 30%	75004
Transparency	Day	54% 7% 11% 17% 9% 1	74467
	Night	55% 7% 11% 18% 9% 1	74833
Seeing	Day	27% 17% 29% 18% 7% 2	13370
	Night	25% 14% 27% 24% 9% 1	22501

By Month

Percentage Cloud Cover NE (2006-)
Color Meanings: Overcast 90% covered 80% covered 70% covered 60% covered 50% covered 40% covered 30% covered 20% covered 10% covered Clear
Month	Days in Month		Occurrence of each Forecast	Data Points
January	1st to 10th	Day	19% 19% 7% 14% 8% 3 5% 3 3 2 17%	1517
	11th to 20th	Day	19% 18% 6% 11% 7% 3 3 4 5% 5% 20%	1472
	21st to end	Day	13% 14% 8% 10% 8% 4 6% 5% 5% 6% 24%	1584
February	1st to 10th	Day	12% 18% 7% 12% 10% 3 4 3 4 5% 20%	1611
	11th to 20th	Day	13% 19% 6% 12% 6% 4 4 4 4 4 25%	1613
	21st to end	Day	17% 16% 6% 9% 8% 4 4 3 4 5% 23%	1480
March	1st to 10th	Day	15% 14% 6% 10% 7% 3 4 5% 4 5% 27%	1797
	11th to 20th	Day	16% 14% 5% 9% 7% 3 4 4 5% 6% 27%	1912
	21st to end	Day	19% 10% 4 7% 7% 3 2 4 4 6% 33%	2339
April	1st to 10th	Day	21% 15% 4 7% 5% 2 4 3 4 5% 29%	2160
	11th to 20th	Day	21% 11% 4 5% 5% 3 4 3 4 5% 34%	2134
	21st to end	Day	22% 10% 4 8% 6% 3 4 4 4 5% 30%	2310
May	1st to 10th	Day	22% 10% 3 7% 5% 3 4 4 4 6% 31%	2520
	11th to 20th	Day	20% 8% 2 7% 6% 3 4 5% 5% 5% 35%	2478
	21st to end	Day	20% 7% 3 6% 6% 4 5% 4 5% 7% 34%	2725
June	1st to 10th	Day	23% 8% 4 6% 5% 3 6% 5% 6% 7% 26%	2520
	11th to 20th	Day	17% 6% 3 7% 6% 3 6% 5% 5% 8% 34%	2520
	21st to end	Day	22% 7% 3 6% 7% 3 6% 6% 5% 7% 28%	2520
July	1st to 10th	Day	15% 6% 3 6% 5% 3 5% 5% 6% 9% 36%	2520
	11th to 20th	Day	15% 6% 2 7% 6% 4 6% 6% 6% 9% 33%	2520
	21st to end	Day	14% 7% 4 6% 6% 4 7% 6% 7% 8% 33%	2744
August	1st to 10th	Day	16% 7% 3 6% 7% 4 5% 6% 6% 8% 31%	2506
	11th to 20th	Day	15% 6% 2 6% 6% 4 5% 6% 6% 8% 35%	2298
	21st to end	Day	16% 7% 3 5% 5% 4 5% 5% 5% 8% 36%	2376
September	1st to 10th	Day	18% 5% 3 5% 5% 3 4 5% 5% 7% 40%	2160
	11th to 20th	Day	17% 6% 3 5% 4 3 4 4 5% 8% 41%	2120
	21st to end	Day	21% 7% 2 4 5% 2 3 5% 5% 7% 38%	1980
October	1st to 10th	Day	23% 11% 3 5% 4 4 5% 4 4 6% 31%	1800
	11th to 20th	Day	27% 13% 4 8% 4 3 5% 3 4 6% 23%	1792
	21st to end	Day	27% 14% 4 7% 5% 3 3 4 4 5% 23%	1782
November	1st to 10th	Day	18% 13% 4 7% 4 2 4 5% 5% 7% 31%	1671
	11th to 20th	Day	21% 15% 7% 9% 7% 3 4 5% 4 5% 20%	1563
	21st to end	Day	23% 15% 6% 9% 7% 3 4 4 3 5% 21%	1520
December	1st to 10th	Day	25% 19% 6% 9% 6% 3 5% 3 4 5% 15%	1520
	11th to 20th	Day	21% 16% 7% 12% 7% 2 4 4 3 4 20%	1906
	21st to end	Day	23% 20% 7% 10% 6% 2 3 3 4 4 18%	2772
January	1st to 10th	Night	18% 19% 8% 11% 8% 3 4 3 4 4 16%	2649
	11th to 20th	Night	19% 17% 7% 9% 8% 3 4 4 4 6% 18%	2577
	21st to end	Night	11% 14% 5% 10% 8% 4 6% 4 5% 6% 26%	2772
February	1st to 10th	Night	13% 15% 7% 11% 9% 4 4 5% 5% 5% 22%	2348
	11th to 20th	Night	14% 14% 7% 11% 9% 4 4 4 4 5% 25%	2232
	21st to end	Night	15% 14% 5% 9% 6% 3 5% 4 5% 5% 27%	1776
March	1st to 10th	Night	17% 12% 5% 10% 7% 4 6% 4 4 5% 27%	2150
	11th to 20th	Night	18% 14% 5% 8% 7% 3 3 4 4 5% 30%	2043
	21st to end	Night	17% 10% 3 7% 5% 3 4 3 4 5% 38%	2016
April	1st to 10th	Night	23% 12% 4 7% 6% 2 3 3 5% 5% 31%	1800
	11th to 20th	Night	21% 8% 3 6% 4 3 4 4 5% 7% 36%	1775
	21st to end	Night	20% 11% 3 7% 5% 4 4 4 4 5% 34%	1664
May	1st to 10th	Night	20% 9% 3 6% 5% 3 4 4 5% 5% 36%	1440
	11th to 20th	Night	19% 7% 3 6% 5% 3 4 4 4 7% 39%	1415
	21st to end	Night	16% 7% 4 5% 5% 3 5% 4 5% 7% 40%	1550
June	1st to 10th	Night	19% 7% 3 7% 6% 4 4 6% 5% 8% 31%	1440
	11th to 20th	Night	16% 7% 2 6% 5% 2 5% 5% 6% 8% 37%	1440
	21st to end	Night	19% 7% 2 5% 5% 3 5% 6% 5% 7% 36%	1440
July	1st to 10th	Night	11% 6% 3 6% 5% 4 5% 5% 4 7% 44%	1440
	11th to 20th	Night	14% 5% 3 6% 5% 3 4 5% 7% 8% 41%	1440
	21st to end	Night	12% 5% 2 5% 6% 3 5% 5% 7% 9% 40%	1574
August	1st to 10th	Night	11% 6% 2 5% 6% 4 4 5% 7% 9% 40%	1432
	11th to 20th	Night	13% 5% 2 6% 5% 4 4 4 6% 6% 44%	1581
	21st to end	Night	15% 6% 2 5% 4 3 3 5% 5% 8% 43%	1980
September	1st to 10th	Night	16% 7% 2 5% 4 2 4 4 5% 7% 43%	1800
	11th to 20th	Night	16% 6% 2 3 4 3 4 4 6% 7% 45%	1839
	21st to end	Night	19% 6% 3 5% 3 3 4 3 5% 8% 42%	1980
October	1st to 10th	Night	20% 9% 3 6% 5% 3 5% 5% 5% 5% 36%	2155
	11th to 20th	Night	24% 11% 3 7% 5% 3 4 4 5% 6% 29%	2167
	21st to end	Night	25% 12% 3 7% 6% 2 4 4 4 6% 26%	2574
November	1st to 10th	Night	21% 12% 4 6% 5% 4 4 4 5% 6% 29%	2407
	11th to 20th	Night	19% 14% 5% 8% 6% 4 4 4 4 6% 24%	2616
	21st to end	Night	22% 17% 6% 9% 7% 3 4 4 4 4 20%	2660
December	1st to 10th	Night	22% 19% 8% 10% 7% 3 4 4 4 4 16%	2660
	11th to 20th	Night	22% 17% 6% 9% 8% 3 3 3 3 4 22%	3288
	21st to end	Night	25% 21% 5% 9% 7% 3 3 3 3 4 17%	4884

Transparency (when cloud cover <= 30%)
Color Meanings: Too cloudy to forecast Poor Below Average Average Above average Transparent
Month	Days in Month		Occurrence of each Forecast	Data Points
January	1st to 10th	Day	73% 5% 5% 12% 4	1518
	11th to 20th	Day	66% 4 8% 11% 10% 1	1472
	21st to end	Day	60% 6% 8% 15% 10% 1	1584
February	1st to 10th	Day	66% 3 8% 15% 6% 2	1611
	11th to 20th	Day	62% 5% 10% 12% 9% 1	1622
	21st to end	Day	65% 4 7% 15% 9% 1	1480
March	1st to 10th	Day	58% 6% 9% 15% 10% 2	1800
	11th to 20th	Day	57% 6% 10% 14% 11% 3	1912
	21st to end	Day	52% 6% 9% 18% 12% 4	2339
April	1st to 10th	Day	57% 4 9% 16% 11% 3	2160
	11th to 20th	Day	53% 6% 8% 19% 12% 2	2134
	21st to end	Day	57% 6% 8% 14% 12% 4	2310
May	1st to 10th	Day	54% 6% 8% 18% 12% 3	2520
	11th to 20th	Day	50% 6% 9% 18% 15% 2	2482
	21st to end	Day	49% 7% 11% 18% 13% 2	2725
June	1st to 10th	Day	55% 7% 11% 16% 10% 1	2520
	11th to 20th	Day	47% 9% 11% 19% 11% 3	2520
	21st to end	Day	56% 8% 11% 17% 9% 1	2520
July	1st to 10th	Day	42% 9% 15% 24% 10%	2450
	11th to 20th	Day	45% 9% 15% 22% 9%	2445
	21st to end	Day	46% 10% 16% 20% 8%	2591
August	1st to 10th	Day	49% 9% 16% 21% 5%	2492
	11th to 20th	Day	43% 9% 17% 22% 7% 1	2298
	21st to end	Day	45% 7% 14% 23% 11% 1	2376
September	1st to 10th	Day	42% 7% 14% 24% 12%	2160
	11th to 20th	Day	40% 8% 13% 28% 10% 1	2120
	21st to end	Day	45% 7% 13% 25% 9%	1980
October	1st to 10th	Day	52% 6% 12% 20% 10% 1	1800
	11th to 20th	Day	61% 7% 11% 15% 5% 1	1792
	21st to end	Day	63% 6% 11% 14% 6% 1	1782
November	1st to 10th	Day	52% 8% 14% 19% 6% 1	1671
	11th to 20th	Day	65% 6% 10% 10% 8%	1563
	21st to end	Day	66% 7% 11% 11% 4 1	1520
December	1st to 10th	Day	72% 6% 9% 9% 4	1520
	11th to 20th	Day	67% 7% 10% 12% 5%	1906
	21st to end	Day	70% 6% 6% 12% 6%	2772
January	1st to 10th	Night	71% 6% 8% 11% 4	2649
	11th to 20th	Night	67% 5% 10% 9% 8% 1	2577
	21st to end	Night	58% 5% 9% 14% 11% 2	2772
February	1st to 10th	Night	63% 6% 9% 15% 7% 1	2348
	11th to 20th	Night	62% 5% 10% 15% 8% 1	2234
	21st to end	Night	57% 6% 10% 16% 10% 1	1776
March	1st to 10th	Night	60% 5% 9% 15% 9% 2	2160
	11th to 20th	Night	57% 6% 10% 15% 11% 2	2044
	21st to end	Night	49% 5% 9% 18% 14% 4	2016
April	1st to 10th	Night	55% 4 9% 17% 13% 2	1800
	11th to 20th	Night	48% 6% 9% 21% 14% 2	1775
	21st to end	Night	52% 6% 9% 18% 12% 3	1664
May	1st to 10th	Night	50% 6% 8% 19% 14% 3	1440
	11th to 20th	Night	45% 7% 10% 17% 17% 3	1416
	21st to end	Night	43% 9% 11% 21% 14% 3	1551
June	1st to 10th	Night	48% 10% 12% 21% 9%	1440
	11th to 20th	Night	44% 9% 10% 22% 12% 3	1440
	21st to end	Night	47% 8% 13% 19% 12% 1	1440
July	1st to 10th	Night	37% 7% 16% 25% 13% 1	1400
	11th to 20th	Night	38% 10% 14% 28% 10% 1	1392
	21st to end	Night	37% 10% 18% 24% 11%	1486
August	1st to 10th	Night	37% 12% 18% 25% 7%	1422
	11th to 20th	Night	37% 10% 17% 26% 10%	1581
	21st to end	Night	39% 8% 17% 26% 10%	1980
September	1st to 10th	Night	38% 8% 15% 26% 12% 1	1800
	11th to 20th	Night	38% 6% 14% 32% 9% 1	1839
	21st to end	Night	41% 7% 13% 30% 10%	1980
October	1st to 10th	Night	49% 7% 10% 23% 11% 1	2155
	11th to 20th	Night	56% 6% 13% 18% 7%	2167
	21st to end	Night	59% 7% 12% 15% 7% 1	2574
November	1st to 10th	Night	54% 7% 14% 17% 6%	2407
	11th to 20th	Night	59% 7% 11% 14% 7% 1	2616
	21st to end	Night	66% 7% 10% 12% 4	2660
December	1st to 10th	Night	71% 6% 9% 10% 4	2660
	11th to 20th	Night	67% 5% 8% 14% 6% 1	3288
	21st to end	Night	70% 6% 7% 13% 5%	4884

Seeing (when cloud cover <= 80%)
Color Meanings: Too cloudy to forecast Bad 1/5 Poor 2/5 Average 3/5 Good 4/5 Excellent 5/5
Month	Days in Month		Occurrence of each Forecast	Data Points
January	1st to 10th	Day	23% 22% 37% 16% 3	180
	11th to 20th	Day	28% 23% 29% 13% 7% 1	168
	21st to end	Day	24% 22% 32% 15% 4 2	176
February	1st to 10th	Day	37% 30% 27% 5% 1	236
	11th to 20th	Day	29% 32% 29% 9%	280
	21st to end	Day	34% 21% 30% 13% 2	346
March	1st to 10th	Day	28% 20% 33% 16% 3	420
	11th to 20th	Day	31% 22% 29% 15% 3 1	420
	21st to end	Day	32% 20% 24% 16% 6% 1	462
April	1st to 10th	Day	32% 17% 31% 14% 5% 1	420
	11th to 20th	Day	34% 17% 22% 16% 9% 2	412
	21st to end	Day	32% 19% 29% 15% 4 1	420
May	1st to 10th	Day	30% 21% 30% 14% 4 1	423
	11th to 20th	Day	27% 18% 31% 18% 6% 1	447
	21st to end	Day	25% 20% 31% 18% 6% 1	485
June	1st to 10th	Day	29% 19% 31% 15% 6%	450
	11th to 20th	Day	21% 19% 30% 18% 10% 1	450
	21st to end	Day	26% 14% 31% 19% 8% 1	450
July	1st to 10th	Day	18% 11% 34% 25% 9% 2	445
	11th to 20th	Day	16% 12% 36% 27% 7% 1	444
	21st to end	Day	17% 10% 36% 26% 9% 2	488
August	1st to 10th	Day	18% 12% 27% 29% 11% 2	446
	11th to 20th	Day	18% 7% 27% 27% 13% 7%	439
	21st to end	Day	20% 17% 26% 19% 12% 6%	495
September	1st to 10th	Day	22% 9% 31% 19% 12% 6%	450
	11th to 20th	Day	18% 14% 26% 21% 14% 8%	450
	21st to end	Day	22% 17% 24% 21% 10% 6%	450
October	1st to 10th	Day	31% 17% 20% 18% 12% 2	450
	11th to 20th	Day	35% 20% 23% 15% 7% 1	446
	21st to end	Day	38% 13% 27% 17% 5%	396
November	1st to 10th	Day	35% 15% 25% 19% 4 1	365
	11th to 20th	Day	31% 23% 27% 12% 6%	223
	21st to end	Day	32% 27% 29% 12% 1 1	180
December	1st to 10th	Day	36% 19% 29% 12% 4	180
	11th to 20th	Day	31% 29% 29% 9% 1 1	180
	21st to end	Day	37% 22% 27% 10% 3 2	198
January	1st to 10th	Night	29% 16% 34% 16% 3	760
	11th to 20th	Night	31% 18% 27% 19% 5%	737
	21st to end	Night	20% 16% 35% 21% 6% 1	792
February	1st to 10th	Night	21% 21% 34% 19% 4 1	720
	11th to 20th	Night	24% 21% 32% 19% 3	703
	21st to end	Night	25% 19% 29% 24% 4	592
March	1st to 10th	Night	26% 17% 31% 21% 4	720
	11th to 20th	Night	27% 19% 30% 19% 4 1	720
	21st to end	Night	26% 14% 29% 24% 6% 1	792
April	1st to 10th	Night	31% 15% 27% 23% 5%	720
	11th to 20th	Night	27% 15% 28% 24% 7%	711
	21st to end	Night	28% 17% 26% 21% 9%	584
May	1st to 10th	Night	26% 11% 27% 25% 9% 2	360
	11th to 20th	Night	22% 10% 31% 29% 8%	354
	21st to end	Night	19% 10% 35% 27% 9%	389
June	1st to 10th	Night	23% 7% 31% 30% 9% 1	360
	11th to 20th	Night	20% 7% 28% 31% 12% 1	360
	21st to end	Night	21% 6% 21% 36% 17%	360
July	1st to 10th	Night	14% 6% 26% 38% 15% 1	350
	11th to 20th	Night	15% 5% 25% 38% 18% 1	348
	21st to end	Night	13% 5% 26% 39% 16% 1	394
August	1st to 10th	Night	14% 3 21% 42% 20% 1	358
	11th to 20th	Night	13% 5% 20% 35% 25% 2	517
	21st to end	Night	18% 6% 25% 31% 17% 2	792
September	1st to 10th	Night	19% 7% 27% 32% 15% 1	720
	11th to 20th	Night	22% 6% 19% 32% 20% 1	720
	21st to end	Night	21% 10% 23% 27% 18% 1	720
October	1st to 10th	Night	25% 11% 25% 26% 13% 1	720
	11th to 20th	Night	32% 12% 24% 23% 8% 1	720
	21st to end	Night	32% 13% 25% 24% 5%	792
November	1st to 10th	Night	29% 14% 27% 23% 7% 1	740
	11th to 20th	Night	28% 18% 29% 14% 9% 1	760
	21st to end	Night	34% 18% 25% 18% 6% 1	760
December	1st to 10th	Night	33% 19% 26% 17% 4	760
	11th to 20th	Night	31% 20% 28% 16% 5% 1	760
	21st to end	Night	37% 16% 28% 16% 3	836

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