Ex Nihilo Observatory
Clear Sky Chart
History

This sumarizes the distribution of each different forecast outcome for the Ex Nihilo Observatory clear sky chart from 2005-11-06 to 2024-04-03.

This page is a summary of past forecasts. Even though it's based only on forecasts, some people use these pages as clue to a site's climate. But climate data based on actual observation should be preferred (if you can find it!).

Cloud, Transparency and Seeing forecasts are summarized individually. But because good observing conditions require a combination of minimum cloud cover, transparency and seeing, the individual forecast summaries can be difficult to interpret. The observing conditions section counts the combinations of conditions needed for common types of astronomical observation.

Observing Conditions

The following tables count the occurrence of the combinations of forecast and darkness conditions needed for different observations. Conditions are rated by by what percentage of the hours the observation would likely be attempted are usable.

Observation Type	Minimum conditions for hour to be usable				Out of hours
	Clear of Clouds	Transparency	Seeing	Sky Brightness
Planetary:	50%	(no limit)	Average	(no limit)	Nighttime Hours
Deep Sky:	70%	Average	(no limit)	5.9	Nighttime Hours
CCD Imaging:	70%	Below Average	Poor	(no limit)	Nighttime Hours

Percentages are of nighttime hours per month, or per year, when a particular observing conditions was met. Deep Sky percentages never exceed 50% because the moon is up half the time. Deep sky percentages are much lower for charts at high latitudes because of fewer dark hours in the summer.

Overall

By Month

Individual Forecasts

The length of each colored bar in the "occurrence of each Forecast" column is proportional to the number of times the chart forecast that color. The percentages are of the total number of hours per month, or per year, with a particular forecast. The colors as the same as those used in clear sky charts.

Note: Transparency probabilities are only counted for those hours that have 30% or less cloud cover. Seeing probabilities are only counted for those hours that have 80% or less cloud cover. If that's too tricky, try Observing Conditions instead.

Overall

		Occurrence of each Forecast	Data Points
Cloud Cover	Day	14% 5% 2 5% 5% 3 5% 5% 6% 7% 42%	79213
	Night	14% 5% 2 5% 5% 3 4 5% 5% 7% 45%	80924
Transparency	Day	40% 7% 11% 19% 18% 5%	78936
	Night	38% 6% 10% 19% 20% 7%	80720
Seeing	Day	18% 9% 22% 23% 19% 9%	14114
	Night	17% 9% 22% 29% 20% 4	24269

By Month

Percentage Cloud Cover SE (2006-)
Color Meanings: Overcast 90% covered 80% covered 70% covered 60% covered 50% covered 40% covered 30% covered 20% covered 10% covered Clear
Month	Days in Month		Occurrence of each Forecast	Data Points
January	1st to 10th	Day	17% 9% 3 5% 4 2 4 4 5% 6% 39%	2836
	11th to 20th	Day	13% 5% 2 4 4 2 4 4 4 6% 52%	2840
	21st to end	Day	27% 7% 2 4 3 2 2 3 3 4 43%	3160
February	1st to 10th	Day	16% 7% 3 5% 5% 4 4 4 5% 5% 41%	1900
	11th to 20th	Day	22% 7% 2 3 4 2 4 4 4 5% 44%	1848
	21st to end	Day	20% 7% 2 6% 4 3 4 4 4 7% 40%	1570
March	1st to 10th	Day	15% 6% 2 5% 4 3 4 4 5% 6% 48%	1994
	11th to 20th	Day	18% 5% 3 5% 5% 3 4 4 4 6% 42%	2090
	21st to end	Day	17% 5% 3 5% 5% 3 5% 5% 4 6% 42%	2299
April	1st to 10th	Day	13% 4 2 6% 5% 2 5% 5% 6% 7% 45%	2002
	11th to 20th	Day	13% 5% 3 6% 5% 3 4 4 5% 7% 46%	2124
	21st to end	Day	10% 4 2 4 4 3 4 4 5% 9% 51%	2340
May	1st to 10th	Day	10% 4 2 5% 5% 3 5% 4 6% 8% 49%	2340
	11th to 20th	Day	12% 5% 3 6% 5% 3 6% 5% 6% 8% 41%	2301
	21st to end	Day	12% 5% 3 5% 6% 4 5% 6% 6% 10% 40%	2531
June	1st to 10th	Day	10% 5% 2 6% 7% 4 8% 5% 8% 10% 34%	2340
	11th to 20th	Day	6% 3 2 4 5% 4 7% 7% 8% 10% 42%	2340
	21st to end	Day	6% 4 2 7% 6% 4 8% 7% 8% 11% 39%	2340
July	1st to 10th	Day	9% 5% 2 6% 7% 5% 8% 8% 8% 10% 31%	2340
	11th to 20th	Day	10% 5% 2 6% 6% 5% 7% 8% 9% 12% 29%	2340
	21st to end	Day	6% 4 3 7% 8% 5% 8% 8% 8% 10% 33%	2547
August	1st to 10th	Day	8% 6% 3 6% 8% 6% 8% 7% 9% 11% 28%	2327
	11th to 20th	Day	11% 6% 3 6% 7% 5% 7% 7% 7% 9% 30%	2228
	21st to end	Day	14% 7% 3 8% 7% 4 6% 6% 7% 9% 29%	2346
September	1st to 10th	Day	12% 6% 3 6% 6% 4 5% 5% 7% 7% 40%	1980
	11th to 20th	Day	16% 6% 3 4 4 3 4 5% 7% 7% 41%	1980
	21st to end	Day	15% 5% 2 5% 3 3 4 4 4 6% 48%	1980
October	1st to 10th	Day	14% 5% 2 4 3 1 3 3 5% 6% 55%	1980
	11th to 20th	Day	13% 4 2 4 3 2 3 3 4 5% 56%	1843
	21st to end	Day	13% 3 2 4 4 2 3 3 4 6% 55%	1980
November	1st to 10th	Day	12% 4 2 4 4 2 3 3 4 5% 58%	1740
	11th to 20th	Day	14% 4 2 3 3 3 3 4 5% 6% 53%	1710
	21st to end	Day	15% 5% 2 4 4 2 4 5% 4 7% 49%	1710
December	1st to 10th	Day	21% 7% 2 5% 5% 3 4 4 5% 6% 38%	1710
	11th to 20th	Day	19% 5% 2 5% 5% 3 4 3 4 5% 46%	2153
	21st to end	Day	23% 6% 2 4 4 2 4 4 5% 7% 39%	3124
January	1st to 10th	Night	19% 6% 2 4 4 2 4 4 4 6% 44%	4109
	11th to 20th	Night	13% 6% 3 5% 5% 3 5% 4 4 5% 47%	4120
	21st to end	Night	25% 8% 2 4 4 2 3 3 3 4 42%	4491
February	1st to 10th	Night	16% 5% 2 5% 5% 3 4 4 4 5% 46%	2280
	11th to 20th	Night	21% 6% 3 4 4 2 4 4 4 4 44%	2218
	21st to end	Night	21% 5% 2 4 5% 3 4 4 4 6% 42%	1884
March	1st to 10th	Night	15% 6% 3 4 5% 2 3 4 5% 5% 48%	2185
	11th to 20th	Night	15% 5% 2 4 4 2 4 4 7% 7% 45%	2090
	21st to end	Night	15% 6% 2 5% 4 2 4 5% 5% 7% 45%	2299
April	1st to 10th	Night	11% 4 2 4 4 3 4 5% 5% 7% 50%	2003
	11th to 20th	Night	13% 4 2 4 4 2 3 4 5% 8% 51%	1799
	21st to end	Night	10% 4 2 4 4 2 4 4 6% 7% 52%	1620
May	1st to 10th	Night	9% 4 2 4 5% 3 4 5% 5% 9% 50%	1620
	11th to 20th	Night	9% 5% 3 5% 5% 4 6% 5% 6% 8% 43%	1592
	21st to end	Night	10% 5% 3 5% 5% 3 5% 5% 6% 10% 43%	1744
June	1st to 10th	Night	7% 5% 2 5% 5% 3 7% 8% 9% 12% 37%	1620
	11th to 20th	Night	5% 4 2 4 6% 3 5% 7% 8% 12% 44%	1620
	21st to end	Night	7% 4 2 5% 5% 3 6% 8% 8% 12% 40%	1620
July	1st to 10th	Night	8% 6% 2 7% 8% 3 6% 6% 7% 12% 33%	1620
	11th to 20th	Night	6% 4 2 7% 8% 4 6% 7% 9% 14% 32%	1620
	21st to end	Night	7% 4 2 6% 6% 5% 7% 8% 10% 14% 32%	1771
August	1st to 10th	Night	9% 6% 3 6% 6% 3 6% 8% 8% 13% 33%	1611
	11th to 20th	Night	13% 5% 2 5% 7% 4 6% 6% 7% 10% 35%	1669
	21st to end	Night	15% 6% 2 6% 6% 4 6% 6% 7% 9% 33%	1990
September	1st to 10th	Night	9% 4 2 5% 5% 4 6% 6% 6% 10% 42%	1980
	11th to 20th	Night	14% 6% 2 4 5% 3 4 4 6% 7% 44%	1980
	21st to end	Night	13% 4 2 5% 4 3 4 5% 6% 7% 48%	1980
October	1st to 10th	Night	14% 4 2 3 4 2 4 3 5% 5% 54%	1980
	11th to 20th	Night	12% 5% 2 4 4 3 4 3 4 4 56%	2115
	21st to end	Night	12% 4 2 3 3 3 3 4 3 6% 57%	2376
November	1st to 10th	Night	13% 5% 2 3 3 2 3 3 4 5% 57%	2334
	11th to 20th	Night	16% 4 1 3 4 2 3 3 4 6% 54%	2470
	21st to end	Night	16% 4 2 4 4 3 4 5% 6% 6% 48%	2470
December	1st to 10th	Night	17% 6% 3 5% 5% 3 4 5% 4 6% 43%	2470
	11th to 20th	Night	17% 6% 2 4 3 2 2 3 3 6% 51%	3042
	21st to end	Night	20% 7% 3 5% 5% 4 4 4 5% 7% 36%	4532

Transparency (when cloud cover <= 30%)
Color Meanings: Too cloudy to forecast Poor Below Average Average Above average Transparent
Month	Days in Month		Occurrence of each Forecast	Data Points
January	1st to 10th	Day	44% 5% 7% 16% 20% 8%	2837
	11th to 20th	Day	33% 3 7% 22% 25% 8%	2840
	21st to end	Day	47% 2 4 17% 22% 8%	3160
February	1st to 10th	Day	45% 4 8% 18% 20% 6%	1900
	11th to 20th	Day	44% 4 6% 18% 22% 7%	1858
	21st to end	Day	46% 4 8% 14% 19% 9%	1570
March	1st to 10th	Day	38% 4 8% 17% 22% 10%	1994
	11th to 20th	Day	44% 4 10% 18% 17% 7%	2090
	21st to end	Day	41% 6% 10% 21% 17% 4	2299
April	1st to 10th	Day	38% 5% 9% 21% 22% 6%	2002
	11th to 20th	Day	38% 4 8% 18% 22% 9%	2124
	21st to end	Day	30% 6% 9% 27% 23% 4	2340
May	1st to 10th	Day	32% 6% 13% 22% 23% 4	2340
	11th to 20th	Day	40% 8% 14% 22% 15% 2	2305
	21st to end	Day	39% 8% 12% 23% 16% 2	2531
June	1st to 10th	Day	41% 11% 15% 20% 10% 2	2340
	11th to 20th	Day	32% 10% 19% 24% 13% 1	2340
	21st to end	Day	36% 11% 17% 20% 12% 3	2340
July	1st to 10th	Day	42% 13% 15% 19% 8% 2	2275
	11th to 20th	Day	43% 13% 19% 16% 6% 3	2271
	21st to end	Day	39% 13% 19% 20% 8%	2405
August	1st to 10th	Day	45% 13% 16% 20% 6%	2314
	11th to 20th	Day	46% 11% 16% 15% 10% 2	2228
	21st to end	Day	49% 10% 14% 15% 9% 2	2346
September	1st to 10th	Day	40% 10% 14% 16% 17% 4	1980
	11th to 20th	Day	40% 8% 11% 17% 22% 2	1980
	21st to end	Day	38% 4 10% 21% 20% 7%	1980
October	1st to 10th	Day	32% 5% 10% 19% 28% 7%	1980
	11th to 20th	Day	32% 3 8% 23% 26% 8%	1843
	21st to end	Day	32% 3 6% 17% 31% 12%	1980
November	1st to 10th	Day	32% 3 8% 14% 30% 12%	1740
	11th to 20th	Day	32% 4 8% 19% 27% 10%	1710
	21st to end	Day	36% 5% 7% 19% 26% 7%	1710
December	1st to 10th	Day	47% 6% 6% 19% 15% 7%	1710
	11th to 20th	Day	41% 4 6% 17% 24% 9%	2150
	21st to end	Day	43% 5% 9% 19% 21% 3	3124
January	1st to 10th	Night	41% 4 7% 16% 25% 8%	4109
	11th to 20th	Night	38% 4 7% 21% 22% 9%	4120
	21st to end	Night	47% 3 5% 13% 26% 7%	4491
February	1st to 10th	Night	40% 4 9% 18% 21% 8%	2280
	11th to 20th	Night	44% 3 6% 17% 21% 9%	2219
	21st to end	Night	45% 4 8% 16% 18% 10%	1884
March	1st to 10th	Night	38% 5% 8% 16% 21% 12%	2185
	11th to 20th	Night	37% 6% 12% 15% 22% 8%	2090
	21st to end	Night	39% 5% 9% 21% 21% 6%	2299
April	1st to 10th	Night	33% 5% 10% 20% 24% 8%	2003
	11th to 20th	Night	33% 5% 8% 21% 24% 11%	1799
	21st to end	Night	30% 6% 10% 26% 22% 6%	1620
May	1st to 10th	Night	31% 7% 13% 21% 23% 5%	1620
	11th to 20th	Night	39% 8% 14% 20% 17% 2	1593
	21st to end	Night	35% 9% 12% 24% 17% 3	1745
June	1st to 10th	Night	35% 13% 17% 20% 13% 2	1620
	11th to 20th	Night	30% 10% 19% 27% 12% 2	1620
	21st to end	Night	33% 12% 20% 19% 12% 4	1620
July	1st to 10th	Night	40% 12% 19% 17% 9% 2	1575
	11th to 20th	Night	36% 15% 23% 17% 8% 2	1566
	21st to end	Night	37% 13% 23% 19% 6% 2	1672
August	1st to 10th	Night	40% 13% 18% 22% 6%	1600
	11th to 20th	Night	42% 10% 17% 17% 13% 1	1669
	21st to end	Night	45% 11% 16% 17% 9% 2	1990
September	1st to 10th	Night	36% 9% 15% 18% 17% 4	1980
	11th to 20th	Night	39% 8% 12% 18% 20% 4	1980
	21st to end	Night	36% 7% 12% 18% 20% 7%	1980
October	1st to 10th	Night	33% 5% 10% 18% 27% 7%	1980
	11th to 20th	Night	33% 4 8% 21% 25% 10%	2115
	21st to end	Night	30% 4 5% 18% 30% 13%	2376
November	1st to 10th	Night	31% 4 7% 18% 26% 14%	2334
	11th to 20th	Night	33% 3 7% 18% 27% 13%	2470
	21st to end	Night	37% 5% 6% 19% 25% 8%	2470
December	1st to 10th	Night	43% 5% 7% 19% 19% 6%	2470
	11th to 20th	Night	36% 4 7% 18% 28% 7%	3044
	21st to end	Night	47% 5% 8% 20% 17% 3	4532

Seeing (when cloud cover <= 80%)
Color Meanings: Too cloudy to forecast Bad 1/5 Poor 2/5 Average 3/5 Good 4/5 Excellent 5/5
Month	Days in Month		Occurrence of each Forecast	Data Points
January	1st to 10th	Day	28% 20% 36% 15% 1	270
	11th to 20th	Day	29% 19% 31% 16% 5% 1	270
	21st to end	Day	30% 19% 39% 10% 2	297
February	1st to 10th	Day	27% 16% 34% 20% 3	270
	11th to 20th	Day	39% 22% 27% 10% 2	270
	21st to end	Day	36% 22% 29% 11% 3	225
March	1st to 10th	Day	25% 16% 29% 20% 10% 1	364
	11th to 20th	Day	25% 15% 35% 17% 6% 1	460
	21st to end	Day	24% 15% 33% 19% 8% 1	506
April	1st to 10th	Day	21% 14% 30% 21% 12% 1	428
	11th to 20th	Day	17% 15% 30% 21% 15% 1	412
	21st to end	Day	17% 10% 28% 24% 16% 4	420
May	1st to 10th	Day	13% 15% 30% 23% 13% 6%	423
	11th to 20th	Day	13% 7% 19% 32% 17% 11%	447
	21st to end	Day	15% 7% 16% 26% 23% 13%	485
June	1st to 10th	Day	12% 4 15% 30% 29% 10%	450
	11th to 20th	Day	8% 5% 15% 25% 27% 20%	450
	21st to end	Day	9% 5% 17% 32% 23% 14%	450
July	1st to 10th	Day	13% 3 7% 26% 28% 23%	445
	11th to 20th	Day	11% 3 9% 24% 32% 22%	444
	21st to end	Day	6% 2 7% 25% 38% 22%	488
August	1st to 10th	Day	13% 5% 13% 23% 27% 19%	446
	11th to 20th	Day	15% 2 7% 24% 35% 17%	439
	21st to end	Day	18% 3 7% 25% 29% 18%	495
September	1st to 10th	Day	11% 4 12% 27% 31% 15%	450
	11th to 20th	Day	18% 3 10% 26% 29% 14%	450
	21st to end	Day	16% 3 15% 26% 29% 11%	450
October	1st to 10th	Day	19% 5% 18% 29% 19% 10%	450
	11th to 20th	Day	14% 9% 26% 22% 24% 5%	450
	21st to end	Day	18% 9% 23% 24% 22% 4	495
November	1st to 10th	Day	20% 6% 27% 30% 15% 2	338
	11th to 20th	Day	19% 18% 33% 21% 8% 1	270
	21st to end	Day	16% 13% 33% 25% 10% 3	270
December	1st to 10th	Day	32% 16% 28% 19% 4	270
	11th to 20th	Day	25% 14% 34% 18% 6% 2	270
	21st to end	Day	33% 16% 29% 13% 6% 2	297
January	1st to 10th	Night	26% 17% 28% 22% 7%	760
	11th to 20th	Night	22% 15% 31% 25% 6%	760
	21st to end	Night	22% 17% 34% 24% 3	836
February	1st to 10th	Night	21% 13% 30% 31% 6%	760
	11th to 20th	Night	25% 16% 33% 23% 3	743
	21st to end	Night	25% 16% 32% 25% 3	628
March	1st to 10th	Night	20% 14% 30% 31% 5%	760
	11th to 20th	Night	19% 12% 34% 25% 9% 1	760
	21st to end	Night	19% 14% 30% 28% 9%	836
April	1st to 10th	Night	16% 14% 30% 29% 12%	729
	11th to 20th	Night	15% 11% 28% 30% 16% 1	561
	21st to end	Night	11% 7% 26% 33% 21% 1	540
May	1st to 10th	Night	11% 9% 27% 31% 21% 1	540
	11th to 20th	Night	12% 6% 21% 32% 25% 5%	531
	21st to end	Night	13% 3 12% 33% 34% 5%	584
June	1st to 10th	Night	10% 2 15% 34% 33% 6%	540
	11th to 20th	Night	5% 2 16% 29% 35% 13%	540
	21st to end	Night	9% 1 12% 35% 35% 9%	540
July	1st to 10th	Night	10% 2 9% 27% 38% 14%	525
	11th to 20th	Night	8% 2 5% 23% 49% 12%	522
	21st to end	Night	6% 4 6% 30% 46% 8%	591
August	1st to 10th	Night	12% 2 5% 28% 42% 11%	537
	11th to 20th	Night	15% 2 7% 26% 40% 10%	534
	21st to end	Night	16% 3 7% 26% 37% 11%	604
September	1st to 10th	Night	10% 3 9% 26% 41% 11%	720
	11th to 20th	Night	17% 2 11% 28% 37% 6%	720
	21st to end	Night	16% 3 13% 32% 33% 3	720
October	1st to 10th	Night	15% 4 19% 29% 27% 6%	720
	11th to 20th	Night	15% 6% 23% 31% 22% 3	720
	21st to end	Night	14% 8% 21% 33% 21% 2	792
November	1st to 10th	Night	17% 7% 21% 32% 21% 1	740
	11th to 20th	Night	18% 11% 26% 31% 14%	760
	21st to end	Night	19% 9% 25% 31% 15% 1	760
December	1st to 10th	Night	21% 14% 27% 29% 8%	760
	11th to 20th	Night	21% 13% 26% 29% 10% 1	760
	21st to end	Night	28% 11% 27% 29% 6%	836

Page generated at 2024-03-31 06:08:53. Version ac07

Copyright © 2024 Attilla Danko.