Carlyle Lake
Clear Sky Chart
History

This sumarizes the distribution of each different forecast outcome for the Carlyle Lake clear sky chart from 2005-11-06 to 2024-01-31.

This page is a summary of past forecasts. Even though it's based only on forecasts, some people use these pages as clue to a site's climate. But climate data based on actual observation should be preferred (if you can find it!).

Cloud, Transparency and Seeing forecasts are summarized individually. But because good observing conditions require a combination of minimum cloud cover, transparency and seeing, the individual forecast summaries can be difficult to interpret. The observing conditions section counts the combinations of conditions needed for common types of astronomical observation.

Observing Conditions

The following tables count the occurrence of the combinations of forecast and darkness conditions needed for different observations. Conditions are rated by by what percentage of the hours the observation would likely be attempted are usable.

Observation Type	Minimum conditions for hour to be usable				Out of hours
	Clear of Clouds	Transparency	Seeing	Sky Brightness
Planetary:	50%	(no limit)	Average	(no limit)	Nighttime Hours
Deep Sky:	70%	Average	(no limit)	5.9	Nighttime Hours
CCD Imaging:	70%	Below Average	Poor	(no limit)	Nighttime Hours

Percentages are of nighttime hours per month, or per year, when a particular observing conditions was met. Deep Sky percentages never exceed 50% because the moon is up half the time. Deep sky percentages are much lower for charts at high latitudes because of fewer dark hours in the summer.

Overall

By Month

Individual Forecasts

The length of each colored bar in the "occurrence of each Forecast" column is proportional to the number of times the chart forecast that color. The percentages are of the total number of hours per month, or per year, with a particular forecast. The colors as the same as those used in clear sky charts.

Note: Transparency probabilities are only counted for those hours that have 30% or less cloud cover. Seeing probabilities are only counted for those hours that have 80% or less cloud cover. If that's too tricky, try Observing Conditions instead.

Overall

		Occurrence of each Forecast	Data Points
Cloud Cover	Day	12% 7% 3 5% 5% 3 5% 5% 5% 7% 42%	74934
	Night	14% 7% 3 6% 5% 3 4 4 5% 7% 43%	75211
Transparency	Day	40% 7% 12% 24% 15% 2	74637
	Night	41% 6% 11% 23% 17% 3	75029
Seeing	Day	15% 9% 24% 26% 19% 7%	14493
	Night	16% 8% 28% 31% 15% 2	24471

By Month

Percentage Cloud Cover SE (2006-)
Color Meanings: Overcast 90% covered 80% covered 70% covered 60% covered 50% covered 40% covered 30% covered 20% covered 10% covered Clear
Month	Days in Month		Occurrence of each Forecast	Data Points
January	1st to 10th	Day	15% 10% 4 9% 6% 3 4 4 5% 6% 35%	1517
	11th to 20th	Day	16% 12% 5% 7% 5% 4 4 4 5% 6% 33%	1558
	21st to end	Day	15% 11% 5% 8% 7% 3 4 3 4 6% 35%	1872
February	1st to 10th	Day	19% 10% 5% 5% 4 2 5% 4 4 6% 35%	1678
	11th to 20th	Day	16% 9% 4 7% 6% 3 5% 5% 5% 6% 35%	1748
	21st to end	Day	16% 9% 5% 7% 5% 2 5% 5% 5% 5% 36%	1480
March	1st to 10th	Day	16% 8% 3 5% 4 3 4 4 5% 7% 42%	1800
	11th to 20th	Day	18% 9% 4 5% 6% 3 4 4 4 6% 37%	1917
	21st to end	Day	20% 9% 4 7% 6% 3 5% 5% 5% 6% 30%	2345
April	1st to 10th	Day	13% 5% 3 6% 4 3 4 5% 6% 9% 44%	2160
	11th to 20th	Day	17% 8% 4 5% 4 3 4 4 4 6% 41%	2134
	21st to end	Day	16% 6% 3 6% 6% 4 4 4 4 7% 40%	2160
May	1st to 10th	Day	16% 6% 3 5% 6% 4 5% 5% 6% 8% 37%	2289
	11th to 20th	Day	16% 6% 3 5% 5% 4 4 5% 5% 7% 40%	2356
	21st to end	Day	9% 5% 3 6% 7% 3 6% 6% 7% 9% 39%	2725
June	1st to 10th	Day	8% 5% 2 4 4 3 6% 6% 7% 8% 48%	2520
	11th to 20th	Day	7% 4 2 5% 6% 3 5% 5% 6% 8% 49%	2520
	21st to end	Day	5% 4 2 5% 5% 4 5% 6% 7% 10% 46%	2520
July	1st to 10th	Day	9% 4 2 4 5% 4 6% 6% 8% 11% 42%	2520
	11th to 20th	Day	5% 4 2 4 5% 3 5% 5% 7% 10% 51%	2520
	21st to end	Day	7% 4 2 5% 6% 3 5% 5% 6% 9% 50%	2713
August	1st to 10th	Day	7% 3 2 5% 6% 3 5% 6% 7% 12% 44%	2248
	11th to 20th	Day	8% 5% 3 4 5% 3 5% 6% 8% 11% 43%	2125
	21st to end	Day	6% 5% 2 5% 5% 3 4 5% 6% 8% 51%	2376
September	1st to 10th	Day	13% 6% 3 4 4 2 4 4 4 8% 48%	2160
	11th to 20th	Day	7% 5% 2 5% 5% 3 5% 5% 5% 9% 50%	2084
	21st to end	Day	9% 3 2 5% 5% 3 4 4 5% 6% 53%	1980
October	1st to 10th	Day	10% 5% 2 4 4 2 3 3 4 7% 55%	1887
	11th to 20th	Day	14% 5% 2 5% 4 2 4 4 5% 7% 49%	1800
	21st to end	Day	18% 6% 3 5% 3 2 4 3 4 6% 46%	1890
November	1st to 10th	Day	9% 5% 2 4 3 2 4 3 5% 6% 55%	1672
	11th to 20th	Day	15% 7% 4 5% 5% 2 4 4 5% 5% 45%	1710
	21st to end	Day	16% 9% 3 7% 6% 2 4 4 4 6% 40%	1710
December	1st to 10th	Day	14% 11% 4 6% 5% 3 4 4 5% 6% 37%	1539
	11th to 20th	Day	15% 10% 4 6% 5% 4 5% 4 4 7% 36%	1918
	21st to end	Day	22% 14% 5% 8% 6% 3 4 4 4 5% 26%	2783
January	1st to 10th	Night	14% 9% 4 7% 6% 3 5% 4 5% 6% 36%	2648
	11th to 20th	Night	16% 11% 6% 9% 6% 3 4 3 3 5% 34%	2618
	21st to end	Night	15% 11% 5% 8% 5% 3 4 4 5% 6% 34%	2711
February	1st to 10th	Night	18% 10% 6% 8% 6% 3 4 5% 4 5% 33%	2280
	11th to 20th	Night	16% 7% 4 6% 6% 3 4 4 5% 6% 39%	2098
	21st to end	Night	18% 9% 3 7% 6% 3 4 3 4 5% 37%	1776
March	1st to 10th	Night	16% 9% 3 7% 4 3 4 3 3 6% 42%	2160
	11th to 20th	Night	19% 8% 3 6% 5% 3 3 4 4 6% 37%	2057
	21st to end	Night	20% 8% 3 6% 5% 3 5% 4 5% 8% 33%	2009
April	1st to 10th	Night	13% 6% 2 5% 5% 3 4 4 4 6% 48%	1800
	11th to 20th	Night	16% 6% 2 5% 5% 3 4 5% 5% 8% 42%	1775
	21st to end	Night	20% 6% 3 6% 5% 3 4 4 4 6% 40%	1800
May	1st to 10th	Night	15% 7% 3 5% 5% 4 4 4 5% 7% 42%	1670
	11th to 20th	Night	12% 6% 3 6% 6% 3 4 5% 5% 7% 43%	1534
	21st to end	Night	8% 5% 3 6% 7% 3 5% 5% 7% 11% 40%	1551
June	1st to 10th	Night	8% 5% 2 5% 4 3 5% 4 5% 9% 50%	1440
	11th to 20th	Night	5% 3 2 4 5% 3 5% 4 6% 8% 54%	1440
	21st to end	Night	6% 4 2 4 4 3 5% 6% 6% 10% 50%	1440
July	1st to 10th	Night	10% 3 1 4 5% 2 4 6% 6% 9% 51%	1440
	11th to 20th	Night	5% 3 2 4 4 3 4 6% 6% 9% 54%	1440
	21st to end	Night	5% 3 1 4 6% 3 5% 4 5% 10% 52%	1601
August	1st to 10th	Night	8% 3 1 5% 3 3 4 6% 7% 9% 51%	1690
	11th to 20th	Night	7% 4 3 5% 4 3 5% 6% 6% 9% 49%	1776
	21st to end	Night	8% 3 2 4 4 2 4 5% 6% 8% 56%	1980
September	1st to 10th	Night	11% 4 2 5% 4 2 4 3 4 7% 54%	1800
	11th to 20th	Night	7% 5% 2 5% 4 2 4 4 5% 7% 55%	1858
	21st to end	Night	10% 4 2 3 5% 3 4 4 4 7% 54%	1980
October	1st to 10th	Night	8% 5% 2 4 4 2 4 3 4 6% 57%	2070
	11th to 20th	Night	15% 4 2 4 4 2 3 3 3 5% 54%	2160
	21st to end	Night	20% 6% 2 4 4 2 3 4 4 5% 45%	2464
November	1st to 10th	Night	10% 5% 2 5% 4 2 4 4 4 5% 55%	2406
	11th to 20th	Night	14% 5% 3 4 4 3 3 4 4 7% 48%	2470
	21st to end	Night	20% 8% 3 5% 4 2 3 3 4 6% 43%	2470
December	1st to 10th	Night	17% 10% 4 6% 5% 3 4 4 5% 6% 35%	2636
	11th to 20th	Night	17% 7% 4 6% 4 3 4 4 4 6% 42%	3279
	21st to end	Night	24% 16% 5% 7% 6% 3 5% 3 4 5% 23%	4884

Transparency (when cloud cover <= 30%)
Color Meanings: Too cloudy to forecast Poor Below Average Average Above average Transparent
Month	Days in Month		Occurrence of each Forecast	Data Points
January	1st to 10th	Day	50% 5% 11% 20% 12% 1	1518
	11th to 20th	Day	53% 4 11% 24% 8%	1558
	21st to end	Day	51% 4 11% 23% 10% 1	1872
February	1st to 10th	Day	51% 4 12% 23% 9% 1	1678
	11th to 20th	Day	49% 5% 11% 21% 11% 3	1758
	21st to end	Day	49% 5% 10% 20% 13% 3	1480
March	1st to 10th	Day	43% 6% 10% 25% 14% 3	1800
	11th to 20th	Day	50% 5% 12% 20% 11% 2	1917
	21st to end	Day	54% 7% 12% 18% 8% 1	2345
April	1st to 10th	Day	36% 8% 13% 26% 16% 1	2160
	11th to 20th	Day	45% 5% 10% 24% 13% 3	2134
	21st to end	Day	45% 7% 11% 24% 11% 2	2160
May	1st to 10th	Day	44% 9% 15% 23% 8% 1	2289
	11th to 20th	Day	43% 8% 14% 21% 13% 1	2360
	21st to end	Day	39% 10% 15% 22% 12% 2	2725
June	1st to 10th	Day	31% 9% 14% 27% 16% 3	2520
	11th to 20th	Day	31% 8% 14% 24% 21% 2	2520
	21st to end	Day	30% 11% 17% 23% 15% 5%	2520
July	1st to 10th	Day	33% 10% 15% 26% 12% 4	2451
	11th to 20th	Day	26% 9% 16% 28% 18% 3	2445
	21st to end	Day	31% 9% 12% 28% 17% 2	2562
August	1st to 10th	Day	32% 9% 14% 27% 16% 1	2234
	11th to 20th	Day	32% 10% 16% 28% 13% 1	2125
	21st to end	Day	30% 7% 15% 24% 18% 6%	2376
September	1st to 10th	Day	36% 6% 12% 25% 18% 4	2160
	11th to 20th	Day	32% 6% 10% 26% 24% 3	2084
	21st to end	Day	31% 5% 10% 25% 25% 4	1980
October	1st to 10th	Day	30% 5% 11% 26% 25% 3	1887
	11th to 20th	Day	35% 5% 10% 24% 22% 5%	1800
	21st to end	Day	40% 4 9% 27% 16% 3	1890
November	1st to 10th	Day	31% 5% 13% 28% 18% 6%	1672
	11th to 20th	Day	40% 5% 10% 23% 18% 5%	1710
	21st to end	Day	47% 5% 8% 25% 14% 1	1710
December	1st to 10th	Day	47% 6% 12% 22% 12% 1	1539
	11th to 20th	Day	47% 6% 9% 25% 11% 2	1915
	21st to end	Day	61% 5% 11% 14% 7% 2	2783
January	1st to 10th	Night	49% 5% 10% 22% 13% 1	2648
	11th to 20th	Night	54% 5% 9% 22% 10% 1	2618
	21st to end	Night	50% 5% 13% 20% 11% 1	2711
February	1st to 10th	Night	53% 5% 11% 20% 10% 1	2280
	11th to 20th	Night	45% 4 12% 20% 16% 2	2099
	21st to end	Night	50% 5% 10% 21% 12% 3	1776
March	1st to 10th	Night	45% 5% 9% 22% 18% 3	2160
	11th to 20th	Night	48% 5% 11% 20% 13% 3	2057
	21st to end	Night	50% 7% 12% 21% 9% 2	2009
April	1st to 10th	Night	37% 6% 11% 26% 17% 3	1800
	11th to 20th	Night	40% 5% 11% 23% 18% 4	1775
	21st to end	Night	46% 6% 9% 21% 15% 3	1800
May	1st to 10th	Night	42% 7% 11% 25% 13% 2	1670
	11th to 20th	Night	41% 8% 11% 24% 16% 1	1535
	21st to end	Night	38% 10% 13% 20% 16% 4	1552
June	1st to 10th	Night	31% 7% 14% 24% 22% 2	1440
	11th to 20th	Night	26% 8% 13% 26% 23% 5%	1440
	21st to end	Night	27% 9% 15% 25% 17% 7%	1440
July	1st to 10th	Night	29% 9% 14% 28% 16% 5%	1400
	11th to 20th	Night	25% 7% 15% 30% 18% 4	1392
	21st to end	Night	27% 8% 14% 29% 19% 3	1512
August	1st to 10th	Night	28% 9% 16% 26% 19% 2	1680
	11th to 20th	Night	29% 9% 13% 25% 22% 2	1776
	21st to end	Night	25% 8% 14% 25% 23% 6%	1980
September	1st to 10th	Night	31% 5% 9% 29% 19% 7%	1800
	11th to 20th	Night	29% 6% 9% 30% 22% 5%	1858
	21st to end	Night	29% 7% 8% 22% 28% 6%	1980
October	1st to 10th	Night	28% 5% 10% 25% 26% 6%	2070
	11th to 20th	Night	33% 4 8% 25% 23% 6%	2160
	21st to end	Night	42% 5% 8% 22% 19% 4	2464
November	1st to 10th	Night	32% 4 11% 24% 23% 5%	2406
	11th to 20th	Night	36% 4 10% 24% 22% 4	2470
	21st to end	Night	44% 3 9% 24% 18% 1	2470
December	1st to 10th	Night	49% 5% 11% 22% 12% 1	2636
	11th to 20th	Night	44% 5% 11% 25% 15% 1	3281
	21st to end	Night	63% 7% 9% 14% 7% 1	4884

Seeing (when cloud cover <= 80%)
Color Meanings: Too cloudy to forecast Bad 1/5 Poor 2/5 Average 3/5 Good 4/5 Excellent 5/5
Month	Days in Month		Occurrence of each Forecast	Data Points
January	1st to 10th	Day	25% 17% 29% 22% 7%	270
	11th to 20th	Day	28% 18% 30% 21% 2	270
	21st to end	Day	24% 19% 34% 17% 5%	294
February	1st to 10th	Day	33% 13% 38% 14% 3	240
	11th to 20th	Day	28% 22% 27% 19% 4	240
	21st to end	Day	29% 17% 32% 20% 2 1	198
March	1st to 10th	Day	22% 16% 42% 16% 4	240
	11th to 20th	Day	30% 14% 35% 15% 6%	240
	21st to end	Day	29% 14% 30% 21% 5%	431
April	1st to 10th	Day	16% 15% 34% 25% 10% 1	420
	11th to 20th	Day	20% 16% 26% 23% 13% 2	412
	21st to end	Day	19% 15% 35% 20% 10% 2	420
May	1st to 10th	Day	17% 15% 28% 30% 8% 2	423
	11th to 20th	Day	17% 9% 24% 29% 17% 5%	502
	21st to end	Day	9% 4 28% 30% 19% 10%	679
June	1st to 10th	Day	9% 4 16% 30% 29% 12%	630
	11th to 20th	Day	8% 2 20% 33% 28% 8%	630
	21st to end	Day	6% 6% 23% 34% 23% 8%	630
July	1st to 10th	Day	10% 2 11% 26% 29% 21%	621
	11th to 20th	Day	5% 3 12% 34% 31% 14%	618
	21st to end	Day	8% 1 12% 33% 33% 13%	684
August	1st to 10th	Day	9% 2 10% 33% 32% 14%	546
	11th to 20th	Day	10% 2 13% 28% 32% 14%	439
	21st to end	Day	8% 2 12% 27% 35% 17%	495
September	1st to 10th	Day	12% 3 17% 25% 29% 14%	450
	11th to 20th	Day	7% 3 10% 29% 37% 15%	450
	21st to end	Day	10% 6% 21% 27% 24% 12%	450
October	1st to 10th	Day	11% 6% 22% 36% 20% 4	357
	11th to 20th	Day	15% 15% 33% 24% 11% 1	270
	21st to end	Day	28% 16% 28% 20% 8%	297
November	1st to 10th	Day	13% 9% 36% 22% 15% 6%	270
	11th to 20th	Day	19% 17% 30% 20% 10% 3	270
	21st to end	Day	24% 13% 32% 21% 8% 2	270
December	1st to 10th	Day	14% 19% 39% 16% 5% 6%	270
	11th to 20th	Day	22% 15% 33% 22% 6% 1	270
	21st to end	Day	27% 19% 35% 16% 4	297
January	1st to 10th	Night	20% 14% 37% 24% 5%	950
	11th to 20th	Night	22% 17% 34% 23% 4	950
	21st to end	Night	21% 14% 38% 25% 2	1043
February	1st to 10th	Night	22% 12% 40% 24% 2	840
	11th to 20th	Night	21% 16% 37% 23% 2	703
	21st to end	Night	24% 15% 37% 22% 2	592
March	1st to 10th	Night	20% 14% 38% 23% 4	720
	11th to 20th	Night	23% 12% 33% 26% 6%	617
	21st to end	Night	24% 8% 32% 28% 7%	594
April	1st to 10th	Night	16% 12% 36% 29% 7%	540
	11th to 20th	Night	18% 8% 33% 29% 12% 1	533
	21st to end	Night	22% 6% 35% 27% 9% 1	540
May	1st to 10th	Night	17% 7% 30% 35% 11%	540
	11th to 20th	Night	11% 6% 28% 36% 18% 2	531
	21st to end	Night	10% 3 21% 39% 24% 3	584
June	1st to 10th	Night	10% 3 18% 40% 27% 2	540
	11th to 20th	Night	7% 2 17% 47% 25% 2	540
	21st to end	Night	6% 2 20% 41% 29% 1	540
July	1st to 10th	Night	10% 2 7% 34% 38% 8%	525
	11th to 20th	Night	5% 2 12% 41% 37% 3	522
	21st to end	Night	5% 1 12% 40% 37% 4	591
August	1st to 10th	Night	8% 2 9% 41% 36% 5%	537
	11th to 20th	Night	7% 1 13% 39% 35% 5%	534
	21st to end	Night	8% 1 8% 35% 43% 4	594
September	1st to 10th	Night	12% 1 14% 36% 32% 6%	540
	11th to 20th	Night	8% 2 14% 36% 33% 6%	598
	21st to end	Night	11% 5% 21% 32% 26% 6%	720
October	1st to 10th	Night	9% 4 24% 36% 23% 4	720
	11th to 20th	Night	16% 9% 29% 32% 14% 1	720
	21st to end	Night	23% 10% 30% 29% 7%	792
November	1st to 10th	Night	12% 6% 36% 34% 10% 1	740
	11th to 20th	Night	16% 11% 34% 29% 10% 1	760
	21st to end	Night	24% 10% 33% 26% 8%	760
December	1st to 10th	Night	21% 13% 34% 26% 6%	926
	11th to 20th	Night	24% 7% 33% 31% 5%	950
	21st to end	Night	27% 14% 35% 21% 4	1045

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